Volatility gains for a second week

Despite equity indexes closing the week with moderate declines, the VIX still slipped into the Friday close, settling -2.4% @ 14.37. Across the week though, the VIX gained for a second consecutive week, with net gains of 7.2%.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Despite the market declining a little more:  sp -5pts, the VIX still cooled down..

First support looks to be the daily 10MA, that is @ 13.09, but is rising.

Arguably, VIX 11s look completely out of range for some 'weeks', and 12s will only be viable if the market can make a play into the sp'1690s again - which certainly won't be easy next week.


Two weeks does not make a trend..but its a start

For the equity 'doomer bears' out there, one of the most bearish aspects is that the VIX has actually managed to close with net gains for the second consecutive week. Sure, we're only in the low teens, but its a start..and 16/19s look viable within the next week or two.

Breaking into the VIX 20s though, that remains VERY difficult, and looks to only be briefly viable in the first half of September.
--

more later..on those weak indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes mostly closed a touch lower, after a slight late afternoon micro rally. The broad trend remains weak, but a bounce next week into the sp'1680s looks very viable. Precious metals and Oil both closed with moderate gains. VIX closed around 2% lower in the low 14s.


sp'60min

Summary

*bulls fail to clear the hourly 10MA. That keeps the door open to further downside, even as far as the 1630s, although I'm inclined against that. Bears still seem weak.
--

Certainly, today was a failure for the bulls, with further declines, and the sp' even broke below the daily 50MA of 1657.

This week was useful, if only in that the five week tight trading range is over. Downside into September is pretty secure now, somewhere down to the sp'1575/50 zone.

Have a good weekend.
-

*next main post, late Saturday on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - another floor attempt

The indexes are again trying to secure a floor, with the sp' having hit 1652. Bulls need an hourly closing candle above the 10MA..currently 1660. Precious metals holding gains, Gold +$12, with Oil similarly higher. VIX -1%, and looks likely to melt lower into the opex close.


sp'60min

Summary

*interesting hourly candle..is that a spike floor?

Look at MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle...inexorable battling back upward. Bulls have a real chance on Monday to kick this market back upward.
--

The bulls sure have struggled since Thursday morning, with the market set to close the week with net weekly declines of around 2%.
-

*upside target for a bounce early next week remains 1680/85....which now looks not viable until Tues/Wed.
-

*I remain on the sidelines across the weekend.
--

3.01pm..just another 2/3pts..and the 10MA will be cleared..and bulls will be all set for Monday.

3.28pm.. bulls still struggling to clear the hourly 10MA of 1660, but then its choppy opex.

Looks like market makers  content to pin AAPL at the big $500 level.