Volatility back in the teens

With the main indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX managed to claw higher into the close, settling +5.9% @ 13.04. Baring a break <sp'1675, the VIX still looks set to fall back lower into the Friday opex.

VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So, volatility climbs a little, and we're back into the teens again. Yet, unless the equity bears can break <sp'1675 tomorrow/Friday, the VIX looks set to simply melt back lower into the Friday/opex weekly close.

With the hourly index charts looking floored from a cycle perspective, the bears are going to find it next to impossible to break 1675..baring a straight forward 'gap below resistance'. I don't think that is at all likely.

Next week looks a lot more interesting, with VIX possibly in the 15/16s.

more later..on the main indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes all closed moderately lower, with the sp -8pts @ 1685. Near term outlook for equities looks to be continued minor price chop into the Friday opex. Precious metals and Oil both closed higher, with Silver managing around 1.8%


sp'60min

Summary

Again, it was a pretty dull day of minor price chop.
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The market remains trapped within a very narrow range, with equity bears needing a move <1675. Bulls just need anything >1700.


*I remain content on the sidelines, seeking an index re-short after the Friday morning QE, in the sp'1695/1700 zone.

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the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - stuck in the range

The main indexes remain within the sp1675/1709 zone, that has endured for almost five full weeks! Despite the 'powerless bears', the bulls look similarly tired, and breaking the sp'1700 wall just gets harder each day.


sp'60min'4 - H/S idea

Summary

For the closing hour, I don't expect much, perhaps the usual minor melt higher.
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The above H/S formation idea is just one of a number of leading scenarios. Certainly, it'd be great if it turns out that way, not least for downside next week.

So long as we don't break above 1700, I'm going with the above outlook.

*I should note, if somehow we do close the week in the 1700s, I'll be concerned of another stupid ramp, the target would be 1740/60 by mid-September.
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Anyway..from a trading perspective, its pretty clear in terms of stops.
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