VIX closed with a reversal candle

Whilst the main equity indexes closed with moderate gains, the VIX managed to close with a classic reversal candle, settling -1.9% @ 12.73. Near term trend is offering increased volatility, with the next target of 14.50/15.00..as early as late Friday - with sp'1670s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

As ever, a reversal candle (hollow red) is always something to pay attention to.

With equities seemingly stuck a touch under sp'1700, I am looking for a Friday VIX jump into the 14s..possibly even low 15s, which should equate to sp' 1670s.

As ever, it could drag out into early next week, but we're certainly due for some increased equity downside action.

Even an sp' drop of 20/25pts would not rank as anything 'significant'..and the same goes for VIX 14/15s.

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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed moderately higher, but the market appears stuck at the key psy' level of sp'1700. If the micro-count outlook is correct, with an ABC bounce, then the sp'1670s look viable either tomorrow, or early next week. VIX is further suggestive of index weakness into the weekend.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Well, an interesting day, and after some weeks of waiting, I'm back on the short side of the indexes.

Broad weekly charts are offering the sp'1600/1550 area by mid-Sept, so I'll be taking a 'default trade is short' for the next 4-6 weeks.

As for tomorrow, there is no sig' QE, and the bears have a pretty good chance of kicking the market lower into the weekend.

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the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - bears ready for next wave

The main indexes are holding moderate gains, but it sure feels weak out there. The market remains stuck around sp'1700, and there is downside pressure on the hourly cycle in the 1700/03 area. VIX looks floored in the mid 12s. Gold holding gains of $26 or so.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Lets see how Mr Market wants to close. If it wants to confuse the max' amount of traders, it'll close 1698/1700 area.

Regardless..i hold short into Friday. Seeking sp'1675. I have to say, I'm feeling pretty confident about how its playing out.

It would be nice to end the week with an exit in the 1670s.
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3.08pm..  t-5/10mins until a snap lower is viable.

3.23pm... it looks to be underway

3.28pm...looking bearish for the closing 30mins

So...lets see if the 1670s tomorrow :)


3.44pm.. sp'1699...well, the algo-bots might wanna hit some stops before the close....

Regardless, I hold short overnight.

back at the close :)