Friday, 2 August 2013

Volatility melts into the 11s

With the main indexes clawing inexorably higher, market volatility is still melting lower, with the VIX closing -7.4% @ 11.98 - the lowest close since mid April. Across the week, the VIX slipped 5.8%. The US market remains utterly..and bizarrely complacent.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

Considering the market closed the week at new historic highs, its not exactly surprising to see the VIX close on a downer, but still...the 11s is somewhat bizarre to see again.

From what I gather, even the VIX pro-traders weren't looking for a VIX consistently below 13.

Yet here we are, with a weekly close in the 11s..and the indexes are still offering a little more upside next week.
--

more later..on those powerful indexes

Closing Brief

With no power on the bear side, the market recovered (if slowly) from morning declines, and closed at new historic highs. This was the sixth week higher for the US market, but things are very close to completing what is probably a sub fifth wave. Its almost time.


sp'60min


Summary

For the bears, another week of nonsense, even the closing hour was the typical little ramp;..as we've seen over a hundred times in the past four years.

I am holding to the original outlook. A key cycle turn next week, probably in the sp'1715/25 zone.

*Personally, I won't likely consider shorting the indexes until late Tuesday morning, after a rather large QE-pomo of $4-5bn has occurred.


Have a good weekend everyone!
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*next main post, late Saturday, probably on the World indexes

3pm update - quiet end to the week

The main indexes are generally flat/fractionally higher, with the VIX -6%, looking set to close in the 11s.The metals are mixed, with Gold now $2, although that is still a sharp reversal after the pre-market declines of $25. Oil is moderately weak, now -0.9%.


sp'60min


Summary

It is indeed very quiet out there, and we're to going to the end the week on a very quiet note.
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Stock of the day? .AAPL, which is ending the week on a high


Set to test the 200 day MA next week, when I am similarly looking for a market top.