Volatility relentlessly sliding

With equity indexes closing higher, the VIX naturally saw the fourth consecutive daily decline, closing -2.9% @ 14.35, the lowest VIX level in six weeks. Near term trend remains weak, and VIX looks set for the 13/12s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The VIX has now lost over a third, in just 11 trading days.

The big 20 threshold now looks a very long way up, and it doesn't look likely to be hit any time soon, certainly not before mid August, but perhaps way into September.

The hourly VIX/index charts are offering a small move in the bears favour, perhaps across late Wed/Thursday, but bigger picture remains in favour of equity bulls.

For the bears out there, its a market to avoid, and just observe.

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

It was the fourth consecutive daily gain for the US indexes, with the sp +11pts (0.75%) @ 1652. The transports saw very strong gains (but largely a result of FDX), +2.2%. Near term resistance is around sp'1655/60.


sp'60min

Summary

Another day for the bulls to revel in this twisted QE-fuelled market.

There is simply no reason for the bears to be part of  this.

Even the threat of moderate downside - post FOMC minutes (Wed' 2pm), is arguably nothing to be trading on.

By early August, we will surely be in the sp'1700s
--

*I remain content to be on the sidelines.

3pm update - melt into the close?

The main market is holding comfortably in the sp'1650s. Bulls should aim to break the June'18 high of 1654. Anything over that, arguably makes the 1700s a given by early August. Bears remain obliterated, with the VIX set to lose the 14s.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Considering another QE is scheduled for tomorrow, you'd have to expect the algo-bots will want to front run it.

No reason why we won't at least hold flat, or even climb into the close.

After relative weakness, Oil is melting higher, now up almost 1%


3.17pm.. sp'1653..just 1pt away from hitting a few more short-stops from the 1654 high.

I would guess the bots will manage to spike through this.