Volatility falls into the weekend

With price momentum generally starting to swing back to the bulls, the VIX significantly cooled down, closing -7.8% @ 18.90. A gap-fill in the upper 16s looks very possible next Mon/Tuesday, before a further surge into the mid 20s, possibly low 30s, with sp'1550/30s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

For the equity bears, it was a relatively good week. Perhaps the most important achievement was the VIX breaking back into the 20s - for the first time since last December.

Even though the VIX closed the week somewhat weak, that is arguably an understandable retracement.

A further VIX decline seems likely early next week, before a much stronger surge, whilst the sp' declines to 1550/30s - which does indeed appear possible as early as the latter part of next week.

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

The market saw chop for much of the day, with a somewhat surprising new cycle low of sp'1577. However, the index hourly cycles floored by late morning, and we closed the week significantly above the lows. Seeking Monday bounce, before severe falls later next week.


sp'60min

Summary

...and another week comes to a close!

Congrats to those bears who shorted the Bernanke this week, and who have cashed out into the weekend.

Another much stronger down wave looks likely later next week. Best guess, we see a bounce to sp'1620s by late Monday.


Have a good weekend!
--

*next main post, late Saturday, on the US weekly index cycles

3pm update - closing hour moon ramp?

Despite a good few hours of chop, the market looks set for a closing hour moon ramp.  First upside target is sp'1600, but a close in the 1608/10 area is very viable. VIX is weak, and could easily close lower by 10% or so, the upper 16s seem possible by late Monday.


sp'60min

Summary

Its been a good week for the bears, but hourly charts are highly suggestive of upside into the close, with a large gap higher on Monday.

The utter irony of my week is that all my gains were made on the long side. A twisted world indeed.
--

3.33pm.. sp'1598...we're on track for 1620s on Monday !

3.48pm... sp'1591.. a touch of weakness, but really, bears have no reason to be short into next week.

back at the close