Volatility knocked lower

With the indexes seeing what is arguably a reversal day, the VIX could not hold the marginally higher highs of 18.51, and closed distinctly weak, -5% @ 16.63. Near term trend looks weak, and VIX could easily close the week in the low 15s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The daily index charts look pretty good for those on the bullish side, but the VIX daily chart looks even better for the bulls. Today's closing candle looks very weak for the VIX, and there is little reason why we won't see VIX in the low 15s by the Friday close.

Indeed, if equities have just put in a short term floor at sp'1598, then VIX could fall into the 13s within the next week or two.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The indexes broke a new low in the morning to sp'1598, but we saw a very strong latter day reversal, with most indexes closing moderately higher. The sp' close of 1622 bodes very badly for the bears tomorrow if Mr Market decides it likes the monthly jobs data.


sp'60min

Summary

...as expected.

As noted earlier, bears had almost two full days to exit in the 1610/00 area.

If we're in the 1630/40s tomorrow, there can be no excuses for any complaints.
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bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - closing hour gains?

The market has appeared to put in a floor at sp'1598, and we're already almost 1% higher. Bulls should be content with any close >1610, but if there is even a small short-stop cascade, 1620s are viable. VIX is continuing to cool down.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

So..we're starting to see some initial sign of a rally, but clearly, its only two hours old....and daily charts will take 2-3 days to confirm a turn..never mind an actual rally itself.
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A close in the sp'1620s would be a real bonus for those on the long side, not least those who have been boldly building new long positions since yesterday.


UPDATE 3.27pm..well, still 30mins to go, and we're just 4pts shy of the 1620s.

I have to think, the 1630/40s are viable early tomorrow. The bears who been shorting this since the 1680s have had almost TWO full days to exit.

There can be NO excuses tomorrow of 'oh noes, my winning position went against me'.


3.33pm.VIX daily chart now offering the most bullish equity sign....

We have the MACD cycle starting to tick lower....we have a rollover.