Volatility snaps higher into the close

With the indexes slipping significantly lower in the closing hour, the VIX closed the week on a high, settling +12.2% @ 16.30. Across the week, the VIX gained 16.5% Despite the gains, the big 20 threshold still looks very difficult to reach any time soon.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

A pretty exciting end to the week..and the month. Yet, we're still only talking about VIX 16s, that is a still a bizarrely low level.

Equity bears should be careful not to lose themselves in the hysteria of what is just an index decline of 1.4%. Primary weekly and monthly trends remain to the upside.
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The VIX weekly chart is kinda interesting, in that the week closed on a high - always a bullish sign for volatility. Yet, until we put in a VIX weekly close above the 200 weekly MA, the equity bears can't expect a major equity drop.

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a little more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw a very significant secondary wave lower in the late afternoon, with the sp -23pts @ 1630. The VIX battled higher, closing +12% @ 16.30. Oil fell almost 2%, with similar weakness in the precious metals. A pretty exciting closing hour to end the month!


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Certainly, not the end to the week that the bulls were seeking, but it was end month, and there was an awful lot of index re-balancing, along with month-end issues.
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I certainly don't see any threat to the broader up trends. Nothing has changed. QE continues, and the daily charts are now due a cycle to the upside.


*I hold a small long position - via RIG, across the weekend.

Have a good weekend!
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*next main post, late Saturday, on the World monthly indexes.

3pm update - its a tease for the bears

The main indexes have broken below the morning lows, but we are still holding just above key support @ sp'1644. VIX is +5.5%, a new daily high. USD is actually starting to cool down a little.


sp'15min

Summary

A little bit of drama to end the day, or just a cruel bear tease?

I'm guessing it WILL hold.
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Those bears getting lost in hysteria, might be able to have their heads ripped off.

3.10pm...15min cycle looks BULLISH.

3.42pm... sp'1641....cycle STILL looks bullish for Monday.

3.50pm ...1639s... thats pretty interesting! Were it not the weekend, I'd be picking up another block to go LONG.
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back at the close.