Volatility holds some gains

The VIX broke a new short term high today, hitting 15.65 in early morning - whilst sp'1640, yet with the indexes rallying back, the VIX lost most of the gains, and closed +2.4% @ 14.83. Near trend is bullish volatility, but its going to be very difficult to break much higher than the 16s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

A positive VIX close for the second consecutive day, but the gains were only moderate, and we're still not able to put in a close in the 15s.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is still ticking higher, but its now getting a little on the high side. It would seem, at best the bears have two more days higher.

VIX 20s look as far away as they have done since the start of the year.

more later, on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes declined across the morning, and saw what was arguably a partially QE-fuelled recovery into the late afternoon. VIX managed slight gains of 2% or so. Near term downside looks to be sp'1630/25.


sp'60min

Summary

Interesting day, a bit messy, but still....pretty good for those on the bearish side.
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*I hold minor-short the indexes overnight, seeking an exit around sp'1630/25 tomorrow/early Friday.
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3pm update - stuck under 1660

Mr Market has battled up from 1640 to 1653, with the VIX now a mere 1% higher. Bears are seeking a red close, and all things considered, will just about get one. Daily index cycles all still look weak, and with no sig' QE tomorrow, bears have another window into early Friday.


sp'15min

Summary

Another little 5 wave micro count, like the A' wave?

I find it hard to believe we'll get a close in the green.

Obvious re-short level is 1655/57.

*I'm considering a minor re-short into the close, but there is fair risk of a brief Thursday gap higher.
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updates into the close.


3.04pm ..looking at the 5min..we're due one last up cycle into the close.

best case is around 1656/57
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3.12pm...seeking a re-short from 1655/57 ..into the close.. ETA, 20/30mins

3.21pm... still waiting..sp'1651s.. I want to see another 4-5pts

still waiting..for 55/56

3.29pm.. sp'1652...another 3-4pts to go....plenty of time.  Standing by to short the indexes.

3.42pm.. am minor-short the indexes, via IWM.  Will hold overnight.