Volatility on the rise

Despite the main indexes all closing moderately higher, the VIX held up rather well across the day, closing +3.5% @ 14.48. Hourly charts are offering VIX 16s for Wednesday, but that would likely be the peak of this current six day cycle.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The VIX opened lower by around 2% or so, but that was pretty impressive considering the Dow was +200pts! VIX held very comfortably within my target zone - from last Friday, of 13.70/50,

Hourly MACD cycle is set to go positive at the Wednesday open, and I would not be surprised if VIX is trading in the high 15s..even low 16s early tomorrow.

However, considering big QE due at 10am, I don't think the bears are going to be able to muster anything higher than the 16s.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed higher, but well off their highs. The Sp' close of 1660 was a good 14pts off the morning high. VIX closed +2%, which is somewhat impressive considering the positive indexes.


sp'60min

Summary

Interesting day, and despite a minor up cycle in the closing hour, I am rather pleased with how we closed.
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*I hold heavy short overnight, seeking an exit in the sp'1630/25s.

More later...

3pm update - weakness into the close

On balance, it should seem we will seem general weakness into the close. Considering the sp' is now only 9pts higher, there is still a moderate chance of fractional red Tuesday close. VIX is showing some power, and a close in the mid 14s would certainly be..useful.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

VIX has broken above a series of minor lower highs..and the door is now open to the 16s.

In theory, hourly charts are suggestive of weakness into the close, and especially early Wednesday.

The problem for the bears is that at 10am tomorrow, a rather large QE occurs.
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I will very likely hold heavy short overnight..seeking an exit early Wednesday in the sp'1630/25 area.
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UPDATE 3.32 .  sp'1659....I'd certainly like a close <1660.

I will hold short overnight.