Volatility moderately higher

Whilst the main equity indexes managed slight gains, the VIX also gained..if only a little, closing +2.7% @ 13.37. Near term trend is actually to the upside, although just breaking into the mid 14s is going to be real difficult.


VIX'daily3

Summary

From a cycle point of view, the VIX is indeed starting to battle higher. The daily bollinger bands are now getting real tight again.

Volatility remains remarkably low, but then, that can remain the case for more than a year, as in 1995 and 2005, both years where the VIX never got above 20.
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VIX opex is at the Wednesday open, so don't be surprised if VIX jumps 7-10% later tomorrow. That doesn't mean the indexes will be down 1% or more, but with the Bernanke talking to US congress....its something to keep in mind.

more later, on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed a little higher, but there was certainly a touch of weakness in the closing hour. Oil closed around 1% lower, and is perhaps the most bearish sign out there right now. Metals failed to see follow through after yesterdays strong upside reversal.


sp'60min

Summary

Another Tuesday higher, pretty tiresome for those who are tired of the melt.
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*I will look for another long tomorrow, in SLV or USO, however if the general price action turns bearish as a result of the Bernanke, I will probably sit it all out until next Tuesday.
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3pm update - melt into the close

The main indexes are holding moderate gains, ahead of the Bernanke tomorrow.  VIX is +2%, with the USD slightly higher. Oil is weak, -0.8%, with the metals starting to slip again in the late afternoon.


sp'60min

Summary

A quiet day..and its proceeded largely as expected.

Considering the indexes, Oil is noticeably weak.