Volatility climbs a little

With the main US indexes rolling over in the closing hour, the VIX managed to claw a little higher, +2.0% @ 13.07. Daily charts are offering a moderate VIX snap to the upside within the next 2-3 days. However, it would be surprising if VIX can put in any daily closes >15.


VIX'daily3

Summary

VIX remains at bizarrely low levels, and even a 10% up day would do very little, and we saw plenty such days in April, only to end back in the 12s.
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The ultimate doomer bear target remains a weekly close above the 200 weekly MA, which is still around VIX 21, and I sure don't think that's likely any time soon. Months, perhaps even a year.away.

more later, on the indexes.

Closing Brief

After what was a very quiet day, the closing hour finally saw some price action. The transports lead the way lower, slipping -0.8%, with the sp 0.5% With the USD clawing back earlier declines, the metals and Oil also started to lose some of their moderate gains.


sp'60min

Summary

An interesting closing hour, but we STILL remain within the broad uptrend.

Bears need a close <1640 tomorrow, and I find that difficult to believe, not least since its a 5bn pomo day.
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*I hold SLV short overnight, seeking the 19s, although I realise that is a very bold target. Weekly/monthly charts do support it though.

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - old leader to lead lower

The transports is moderately lower right now, -0.4%. Certainly its nothing of significance, but it could be the very first sign of at least a few days of downside - although that seems more likely to begin after Friday opex, which is a large pomo day. Metals are holding together, Oil is showing some strength.


Trans'daily

Summary

Perhaps a little weakness into the close, we're sp'1657 as I type, 1652/50 at the close?
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*I will hold SLV (short) overnight,  am content with my entry, a touch under 22.00. Target are the 19s. Monthly charts suggest even lower levels this summer.
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UPDATE 3.15pm..Transports -0.6%...with sp'1654.....a close <1650 would make things interesting for early tomorrow..before the pomo $ kick in.

3.28pm Trans -0.9%, sp'1651....a sub 1650 close..now VERY viable.

Metals and Oil still holding earlier gains. I will be looking for a stronger USD in the coming few days.

3.38pm..there go the sp'1650s...and the USD is back to flat, after earlier declines of 0.4%

Metals start starting to show a little weakness.

A little price action in the closing hour...how exciting huh?