Tuesday, 14 May 2013

VIX gains, despite higher indexes

Despite the main indexes battling another 1% higher, the VIX was in positive territory for the entire day. There were early morning VIX gains of 5%, but as is usually the case, the VIX cooled into the close, resting +1.75% @ 12.77.


VIX'daily3


Summary

Whilst the VIX remains at such low levels, all moves are to generally be dismissed as 'mere noise'. Today was no exception.

Baring a break into the 15s, VIX is to be largely ignored.

It remains a wonder if we'll even see VIX in the 20s at all this year.
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Closing Brief

Most of the indexes closed with gains of around 1%. Transports was again leading the way, with gains of 1.9%, in the upper 6400s. The close in the sp'1650s was yet another level that should rattle all those bears currently seeking a near term major down cycle.


sp'60min


Summary

So..another Tuesday, fuelled by QE-POMO, aided by the HFT algo-bots, and cheered on by the maniacs on clown finance TV.

The only issue is whether its more 'months' or 'years' of this nonsense. I'm really starting to resign myself to the latter.
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3pm update - Oil remains weak

Whilst the main indexes look set to close another pomo-Tuesday with moderate gains, Oil remains especially weak, with USO currently -0.9% @ 33.55. Anything <33.40 would pose a problem, effectively breaking the trend that has endured since mid April.


sp'60min


USO'60min



Summary

It looks like we're just forming a baby bull flag on the hourly index charts.

There is no reason why we won't be higher by the Friday close, somewhere in the 1650s.
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*with the EIA oil report due tomorrow @ 10.30am, I am very wary of taking on a long position.

So, I shall wait, and see if we get a brief drop tomorrow, before the next cycle higher.


UPDATE 3.30pm... Oil -1%, with USO 33.52. Hmm, oh well, just have to see how it trades tomorrow morning.
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back at the close.