Monday, 13 May 2013

Volatility down again

Whilst the main indexes continue to hold together, and even put in marginally higher highs, the VIX is continuing to crumble, closing -0.3% @ 12.55. It remains a market that has no fear of the future.


VIX'daily3


Summary

Suffice to say, it is indeed a fearless market, and we could remain in the 13-11 range for weeks..if not months.
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First upside target for the equity bears should be VIX 15s, but I just can't see that viable any time soon.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed.. Weakest was the transports, -0.5% or so, with the R2K -0.15%. SP and Nas' effectively flat. Tuesday might see weakness in the morning, but there is strong rising support @ sp'1625. Sub'1600s do not look viable any time soon.


sp'60min



Summary

A quiet day indeed, on one of those rare no-pomo days.

There really isn't anything to add, aside that the bulls got another daily close in the sp'1630s.

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3pm update - weakness into the close

On balance, some weakness into the close looks likely, after what has been a very muted day. Precious metals and Oil are seeing renewed weakness after the earlier bounce. Miners are especially weak today, with GDX -2.3%


sp'60min



USO'60min


Summary

Quiet day, there really isn't much going on.

*USO in theory could be as low as 33.30/20s early Tuesday. My primary target remains 33.50/40.

I will seek to go long early Tuesday.
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Stock of the day...BKS



As expected, the black candle on Thursday - along with hysteria over a possible Nook deal with MSFT, are entirely irrelevant. The company simply loses money on every book sold.