Volatility primed to soar

It was a rather quiet day in VIX land, gains of 4% failed to hold as the indexes saw a small afternoon rally, and the VIX closed -0.07% @ 13.61. Across the week, the VIX lost 9%. If the indexes are maxed out at sp'1592, then the VIX should have a chance at 20s next week.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

The action today is pretty similar to that of Friday April'12. The following Monday saw the VIX break into the 17s. The pattern certainly looks similar, so it will be fascinating to see if next Monday is a day for the bears.

It has to be said, the weekly VIX decline of 9% is disappointing to see though. We've again come close to breaking back into the bizarrely low 12s.

Hourly cycle offers upside ALL of next Monday, so the bears do have a window of opportunity.

Best bear case for late Monday afternoon, now seems sp'1550s, with VIX 17.
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a little more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The market closed broadly higher for the week, with the SP' gaining around 2% on the week. The one solace for the bears is that the April'11th high of 1597 was not taken out. It looks like we closed the week with a small index bear flag, suggestive of weakness on Monday.


sp'60min

Summary

Its been a long...and tough week for those in bear land. I'm glad its over.

As noted, at least we didn't take out the 1597 high, the obvious key objective for the bears is to take out the recent low of 1536.

Have a good weekend.

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*bits and pieces to wrap up the day, across the evening. 

Next main post, late Saturday, on the weekly US indexes

3pm update - rough week

Regardless of  how we close today, its been a rough week for those in bear land. We've seen a broad climb from sp'1555 to 1592, with VIX back in the 13s. Baring a break over 1592, bears have their first opportunity on Monday of showing whats possible in the weeks ahead.


sp'60min

Summary

Still looks like a minor 2 wave is being formed. Maybe we'll slip in the closing hour, but anyway, it looks okay for downside across Monday.

A difficult week for many.

*I will hold heavy short across the weekend, seeking a first exit in the sp'1550s, with VIX 17s.
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3.08pm .. I still think this is just a tiny bear flag. Unless we are >1592, this is arguably prime re-short territory. 

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3.38pm...sp'1585s...clearly, this is annoying to those bears getting the kick.

It still looks like a small wave'2 bear flag...just like April'12.

back at the close