Volatility falls into the weekend

Despite the main equity indexes remaining weak across the day, the VIX still failed to close with a gain, making five consecutive daily declines. The VIX closed -1.5% @ 12.06. This remains a market that is utterly complacent, despite a great many looming threats.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So, the fifth daily decline in a row, and the VIX is back on the border of breaking into the 11s. Its truly incredible. I  have to wonder again, just what is necessary in order that the VIX break into the 20s again?

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) did turn up intra-day, but by the close, it was still ticking lower.

I'd have to believe, we'll see a conclusive VIX turn to the upside by next Tue/Wednesday at the latest. First target is a very reasonable 14/15.

What will indeed be difficult, is to break into those upper teens, and more importantly, the big VIX 20 threshold.

a little more later, on the indexes

Closing Brief

The equity market held together very well considering the commodity carnage today. The precious metals and Oil market saw very sharp declines of around 5 and 3% respectively. Hourly charts are suggestive of a sub'2 bounce complete..with a gap lower at the Monday open.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, its been a long week, so I'll keep the closing updates this evening..brief.

Market failed to get the close in the 1570s I had hoped for.

Yet, we have the Oil market smashed, ...Dr Copper is weak, and the precious metals have collapsed through support. The deflationary doomers have some serious stuff to think about this weekend.

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Considering everything..I'd be surprised if we don't start next week at least opening 'somewhat' lower.

*I hold USO (short) into next week.

Bits and pieces to conclude the week, across the evening.
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Have a good weekend

3pm update - 60mins to fall 4-5pts

The bears need to see the weekly rainbow chart candle turn back from green..to blue. Its a purely technical issue..and some might argue again it..but that's how I see it. A close in the 1570s is the target. VIX looks like it has upside into the close.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Here is the all important weekly chart...

One hour to go..lets see if the market sells into the close.

I have to think so, with the 15min index and VIX cycles as they are.

*I am re-short Oil (via USO)..and will into Monday.
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3.06pm...as things are..Daily MACD cycle still ticking higher on indexes..but is now also ticking higher on the VIX.

So, bears have the VIX on their side now....just need that close <1580.

3.19pm...sp' challenging the now declining hourly 10MA.

A close in the 1570s...no..thats now out of range.
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Oil..and the previous metals look very weak.
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3.28pm... Gold snaps lower..again..now down $70/75...Silver following..along with Oil

*hourly index charts still look like a wave'2 up...with a 3 down early Monday.

with the VIX this low, I have to think Monday will open very well for the bears.

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3.37pm...behold...the horror of Gold. Closing the week with a horrific snap through support.

Target is 120.....so thats a good $250 down for Gold (spot price)..across the next few months....with SLV 20/19.
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Well, we're clearly not going to close in the 1570s..and thus the sp' weekly 'rainbow' chart will close with a bullish turn. R2K, Transports, are blue though..and as old leaders, bears should hold onto that thought for the weekend.

back at the close.