With the headline Dow and SP'500 indexes breaking to new highs, the VIX struggled across the day. Opening minor gains failed to hold, and the VIX closed -2.7% @ 12.84. This remains close to the recent floor in the mid 12s that held for over a month.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
As a fair few have also noted - not least TraderDan, this market remains utterly..and unbelievably complacent.
RE: hourly VIX count. Its just a vague idea, and certainly, we've almost retraced right back to where we started. The only backup evidence is the Trans/R2K indexes which are still considerably below their recent highs.
--
Near term targets remain unchanged...
Primary...16/17
Secondary....19/20... the latter of which looks very difficult, without a break <sp'1500.
The market opened with what appeared to be a brief spike high, but as we moved into the afternoon, it again became clear, new highs were possible. The Dow and SP' indexes broke new highs, but notable laggards are the two market leaders - the Trans and R2K.
--
*I've been neglecting to highlight the R2K and Transports hourly charts in recent weeks. Most notable is the fact that both counted as a near perfect 5 waves down, and now a 50% retrace of wave'1. They are both suggestive of a wave'3..to begin within 1-2 days.
IWM
SP
Trans
Summary
A somewhat weak closing hour.
--
So, we have a possible double top on the sp @ 1573, although the Dow certainly made a very clear new high.
The next market issue is the FOMC minutes to be issued tomorrow at 2pm.
The bears have experienced far worse than today, but as always, days like today are very annoying.
--
With the bears still utterly powerless, we've now seen the Dow and Sp'500 break to new highs. The one remaining bearish aspect is that the two original leader indexes - Trans and Rus'2000 remain well below their highs. VIX is back in the 12s, with the precious metals holding gains.
sp'60min
trans'60min
IWM'60min
Summary
So...what now?
We've got the two big headline indexes breaking to new highs..and there is NO sign of this ending. Sure they are now arguably overbought, yet a new high..IS a new high..and that sure ain't bearish.
*Poster HighRev notes the A/D ratio, of 1/2 today, which sure ain't supporting the current mild hysteria out there.
As it is, I clinging to the fact that the two indexes that lead the way up - Trans/R2K, are still well below their highs..and look like a 50% retrace...at least so far.
--
updates..into the close...
Rather than watch clown channel in the closing hour..why not instead see a little talk from the Schiff?
--
3.10pm..is the VIX finally done? Its amazing to see it this low....again.
For the TVIX, and other VIX long holders...difficult day, but perhaps..its floored.
--
3.25pm..it remains ironic that despite the ramp, the SP' has still failed to break the Oct'2007 high of 1576.
3.35pm...is that it..finally?
A double top on the sp @ 1573...whilst the leader indexes Trans/R2K failed to claw back more than 50% of wave'1 down. hmmm
3.42...VIX looks like it will be closing in the low 13s.
