Volatility starts the week in the red

US equities saw a rather typical latter day recovery, and closed moderately higher. Naturally, the VIX slipped into the close, settling -5.2% @ 13.19. If the indexes are maxed out, then we should see the VIX start to battle higher, and break into the 16/17s by Wed/Thursday. 20s still look out of range.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

For the bears, today was indeed a rough start, and that's on top of the lousy end to last week.

However, sp'1560s were always a threat, and seeing the close of 1563 was not exactly a surprise.

What is now paramount for the bears, to contain the indexes at current levels, and most certainly, NOT see any further push higher into the 1570s again.

Best guess is that we won't break new index highs, and indeed, as the week proceeds, we should see some real dynamic upside VIX movement.

The big VIX 20 threshold still looks an insurmountable level though. Only if sp' <1500, can I see VIX 20s occurring, and even then, it'll be difficult.
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more later..on those indexes

Closing Brief

The market opened a touch weak, but with powerless bears, the market rallied to what is a natural resistance barrier in the low 1560s. We're now within 1% of the cycle high, and its understandable for those not following the weekly charts, that they might think new highs are coming.


sp'60min

Summary

So..we indeed closed @ 1562.
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Re: the count.

I remain VERY unsure how to count the current nonsense. Fridays big gap lower was certainly the strongest down move since the 1573 high, but it doesn't really count well as a third wave, not least since it had no follow through.
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Regardless, I'm calling Friday low as a wave'1, with today's close - and including perhaps minor Tuesday upside as a 2'.

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Lets be clear...

Bears MUST take out the 1538 low in the next down wave. I suppose we could chop around sideways for a day or two, but whenever the next wave starts, bears had better be trading in the low 1530s..if not the 1520s.

VIX remains remarkably low, and there is very considerable upside available across this week.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - almost there

As expected, the bulls are being given Monday as a freebie. Bears are powerless, and we're seeing a natural bounce back to the key resistance zone of sp'1558/62. Whether we see a little further melt higher into the close seems irrelevant. What is paramount, bears must smash this market lower <1538 in the next wave.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

VIX is especially showing the weakness today..in what remains a fearless market.

After all, there is nothing to be concerned about, right?

Especially not the April'10th deadline for 'diplomats to get outta there'..from North Korea.

All is well.

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updates into the close.

sp'daily

The bears should aim for another close under the 10MA of 1560. Thats viable, not that it matters 'that much'.

SP' remains the second strongest index (Dow is still first), and is clearly still  holding within the November up channel.

Bears need some good closes in those 1530s, preferably 1520s to make it conclusive, although I already think it is.


3.15pm...I don't know how you people wanna count this nonsense, but whatever it is, we shouldn't be breaking anywhere above 1563/64.

Wave'1 down was Friday..and this was a 2 bounce wave?

Regardless...

Bulls should be praying for some kind of miracle gap over 1573 at the Tuesday open. Even then, the weekly cycles are still rolling over.
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3.23..starting to look like we're getting real stuck in the 1556/58 area.

Anyone going short here, moderate risk of Tuesday gap up to 1562/64, before reversal. For those playing big money on the indexes, we're only talking a short-stop of 1% @ 1573 though.

3.40pm...well, the 1560s have been hit..this is about as far as I want to see. Any close >1562 will be a real threat to bears.

Just think, we're only 13pts from the cycle high, but then..thats the QE-POMO kicking in..aided by the algo-bots.