Volatility on the slide

With no comments from the EU, the market was in a much more sedate and comfortable mood. The indexes closed higher, with the VIX naturally slipping into the close, settling -7% @ 12.77 It would seem the sp'1570s will be hit, which might equate to VIX back in the mid 11s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, there sure doesn't seem any point in picking up VIX call option blocks yet. Indeed, if my index target of the sp'1570s occurs, we're probably looking at a Thursday/weekly close in the VIX 11s.

So..near term lower...but I'd have to believe we'll see VIX 20s by late April/early May.


How high can the VIX go in 2013?

Summer 2012 saw the VIX max out at 27, will the 2013 VIX peak be an even lower peak?

If the Fed keep printing, and if the black swans stay in their nests, then VIX might indeed go no higher than 23/25 this year.

Yet, a very long year is still ahead,.lets see how the VIX trades Wed/Thursday.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

As expected, the market melted higher into the close, with the sp' comfortably in the 1560s  VIX naturally slipped -7%. Oil was the notable leader again, climbing around 1.7%. Precious metals closed lower, but slightly off the lows.


sp'60min

Summary

So..we closed in the 1560s..and that keeps the door open to the 1570s for Wed/Thursday.

Daily MACD cycle could in theory climb for 2-4 days..which gets us into next week.

So..right now..bears probably going to need to wait until next Tue/Wed.

As I keep noting..there is NO hurry.  Weekly charts ARE rolling over, despite the current rally. sp'1490/70s seem a given in my view.

more later...

3pm update - melt into the close

Market is holding gains of 0.6%, and with it being so quiet out there today, there is no reason why we can't melt higher into the close. Bears with short stops in the 1563-65 zone are in real trouble this closing hour.


sp'60min

Summary

No reason to expect the market to slip lower.

The micro-count on the hourly chart is very 'unreliable', yet, the daily chart MACD cycle is now ticking higher..so...up for 2-3 days...probably.
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*Oil continues to ramp, and is now trading at the old broken neckline in the (USO) 34.40/50s.

back after the close