Volatility...minor chop

The VIX saw some interesting intra-day swings, having hit a high of 14.61 and an early morning low of 12.39, the VIX closed up just 1.2% @ 13.74. Near term trend looks very choppy, the daily charts offer VIX 16.0, however the big VIX 20 looks unlikely for at least another 2-3 weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The last six trading days in VIX land have been pretty unstable. So far, the bears are just not seeing any sustained significant gains.

Indeed, as this morning showed, the VIX can easily still drop 5-10% without too much trouble.

As it is, I can't see VIX breaking any higher than 16 this week. Perhaps the tail end of next week will offer the first chance at a challenge of the big 20 threshold, but certainly..not this side of Easter.

more later, on the indexes

Closing Brief - messy day

The main indexes closed moderately lower, after opening gains failed to hold. The intra-day reversal was interesting, but it simply isn't that significant in size. USD saw strong gains, which kept downward pressure on the metals and Oil, although Silver and Oil still managed to close up.


sp'60min

Summary

A bit of a messy day to start the week. I think whats clear is that we're back to random EU news reports which are able to swing the market somewhat wildly at times.

The Cyprus issue hasn't gone away, and the longer term ramifications are indeed severe. All those deluded bulls who think everything is again 'fixed' have an interesting and likely 'difficult' time this coming April-May.
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In terms of price action, its hard to know what we're dealing with. We did break the 1563 high at the open, so..bulls do have that to tout today.

I'm still guessing we'll make a spike high in the 1570s this week.

As it is, I won't be looking to do any index shorts/ VIX longs until after the Easter break.
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more later, on the VIX and the Indexes.

3pm update - messing with traders heads

The market is rattling a fair few today on both sides of the fence. Bulls chasing the open got burnt...bears chasing the earlier decline..just got burnt too. Its a nasty market..and it seems we're back to a phase of random EU news reports..all about word games/interpretation.


sp'60min

Summary

From a micro-count perspective, its probably pointless to be guessing, but I'll do it anyway.

Still seeking the sp'1570s..to conclude a final small blue'V.

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*metals are showing underlying strength..and Oil is certainly higher from the earlier drop.

I'll look to hold SLV (long) overnight. 
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back at the close.