Volatility climbs into the close

With the indexes seeing further weakness, the VIX climbed into the close, +10.4% @ 13.99, although is still below the spike highs of early Tuesday. Bears need to break >15.50, which will likely need sp<'1538, the latter of which won't be easy in this QE-POMO fuelled market.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, Friday will be particularly interesting to watch.

Will the market gap straight under the recent sp'1538 low, or will it instead battle higher and take out the sp'1563 high?

I'm still holding to the original outlook, and that is highly suggestive we'll at least be briefly trading in the sp'1570s. If that is correct, then VIX will likely once again fall back into the 11s.

On the bigger outlook, I do certainly look for much higher VIX levels, and some sort of VIX explosion, probably breaking above the key 20 threshold in April.

More later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed somewhat weak, but certainly nothing too major. The one bearish aspect was the VIX, climbing 9% into the 13.90s. Near term index count/cycle is suggestive we'll break the recent 1563 high, but clearly, this market is looking increasingly tired.


sp'60min

Summary

It was an interesting market day to watch. The market is still reacting to every little development in Cyprus.

If some kind of compromise/agreement can be reached, it'll be a major excuse for the market to take out that 1563 high. I'm guessing that we do.
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*I'm merely holding USO (long Oil) overnight, seeking an exit in the 33.50s by the Friday close.
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More later on the VIX, indexes, and other things

3pm update - closing hour recovery?

A rough day for the bulls, but its very possible we've put in a floor @ 1543. VIX is starting to cool down, a close <13.25 would be particularly bullish for the main indexes tomorrow. Precious metals looking strong, Oil is battling back higher.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Bulls should be seeking a close above the hourly 10MA @ 1553. Anything over that will set up a break of the 1563 high tomorrow.

*I'll hold USO (long Oil) overnight, seeking an exit in the 33.50/60s.
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back after the close