Volatility jumps

With the Cyprus event giving the indexes the excuse to sell lower, the VIX spiked 20% higher at the open..yet faded across the day. The closing hour action was for a strong VIX, but it put in a lower high, closing +18.2% @ 13.36. VIX 11s seem viable Wed/Thursday


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

My index outlook is for sp'1575/80 by late Wed/Thursday, If that is the case, then we should see the VIX back in the 11s.

However, the key issue would be to look for a higher VIX low, whilst the indexes put in another higher high.

So..near term down....latter part of the week..opportunity for a mini VIX explosion into the 15/17s.

more later..on the indexes.

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw some weakness in the closing hour, but still, the daily close was a lot higher than many had expected last night. USD continues higher. Most notable recovery of the day was Oil, which fully reversed the gap lower. Precious metals look weak, despite a higher close.


sp'60min

Summary

Certainly an interesting day, and the Cyprus issue will linger on for the rest of the week, if not 'quietly' for a few months.

Have no doubt, the PIIGS of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece (not Ireland) will be seriously looking to skim a few percent of the bank savers money in the mid-term...for the 'benefit of the greater good'.
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As for market land, despite the weak close, it still looks like blue IV is floored @ 1545.

I seek one final Blue V higher, with a target of 1575/80 by early Thursday, at which point I will consider a major index short.

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more later...on the VIX, Indexes, and the weekly index charts...which are now rolling over.

3pm update - closing hour chop

We've now seen most of the indexes claw back most of the opening declines. That puts in a secure floor for blue IV. The only issue is how high do we go in blue V. Best guess, 30/35pts..sp'1575/80, no later than early Thursday, with VIX 11s


sp'60min

Summary

Not much to say, other than 'at least I wasn't shorting the opening decline'.

I wonder how many bears were...urghh.
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back after the close.