Volatility ends the week on a downer

With the main indexes melting back higher across Friday, the VIX naturally responded by slipping lower. The VIX closed -6.9%, settling @ 14.17. This was the highest weekly close since late December.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Not much to add..suffice to say, VIX did break into the 16s on Thursday morning - with sp'1497.

Whether the market can see a further equity wave lower next week, to around sp'1490/80 - with VIX 17/18s, that is now the minor curiosity.

I say curiosity, since the broader picture is absolutely still bullish, not least whilst the Feds POMO program continues.

A little more later..on the indexes.

Closing Brief

A pretty lousy end to the week for the bears, with most indexes closing moderately higher. We're a mere 1% away from the recent index highs. It has to be said, that anyone touting significant declines (<sp'1470) in the immediate term are out of their minds.


sp'60min

Summary

It looks like the few hours of intra-day churn was merely about forming a baby bull flag..and that was confirmed to some extent in the closing hour.

Baring a move under the Thursday low of 1497, the trend is clearly back on the bullish side.
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Next week will be all about the Bernanke.. If he is careful with his words, Mr Market should merely continue to melt higher. At worse..a brief decline to 1490/80.......and then 1550s..if not considerably higher.
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No hope of major declines until May, and even then..just how the hell are we going to decline whilst POMO continues?
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Have a good weekend

*next main post..late Saturday, probably on the US weekly cycles (again!).

3pm update - vague signs

One hour left of another crazy week. Lets not overlook that we made new highs on Tuesday, and broadly speaking, the primary trend remains higher. VIX has shown some power, but even a bounce into the 17/18s would do very little to negate what has happened since the New Years Eve reversal.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Hourly cycles offering very vague signs that this latest bounce is about done. A flat close just looks out of range, so, we'll be closing the week on an upward note.

Those bears still out there, had better hope Monday is a down day. 

What remains absolutely clear, a move under sp'1480 looks...impossible at this stage.

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back at the close.