Volatility surges higher

With the main indexes seeing their biggest decline of the year, the VIX surged higher..and climbed higher into the close. The VIX closed +19.25%, and settled @ 14.68 There is a major gap level of 16-18, which might easily equate to sp'1490/80.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

VIX traded a little higher in the brief AH period. The 14.68 close bodes pretty well for a move into the 15s tomorrow.

The big issue is just how high can the VIX spike in this new up cycle?

*those doomer bears looking for an 'ides of March' issue should look to the VIX weekly chart. If it can hold these gains into the coming weekend, then early next week we might see the weekly MACD cycle go positive...offering major upside, with an attempt to break into the 20s.
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As it is, I just don't think we'll see VIX 20s until late April/May.

Best guess...sp'1490/80 within the next 2-5 trading days..with VIX (briefly) spiking into the 17s.

Then...sp'1550/1600s into early April, with VIX 11/10s

Closing Brief

The main indexes have broken the near term upward trend. There is open air to the downside in the sp'1490/80 zone, which might equate to VIX 17s. The dollar closed strongly higher, which put added pressure on the main market, but especially Oil and the precious metals.


Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Trans

Summary

You can see some clear channel breaks on the hourly charts, so that does indeed open the door to more significant downside as better seen on the daily charts.

I just can't see sp <1480. Not with the Fed POMO program, and with the debt ceiling to be raised..or even abolished entirely by exec' order.

more later..on the VIX, which had the biggest move of the year.

3pm update - metals..to the slaughter

Post FOMC press release, and the market remains in a bit of a mood. The dollar is building further gains, and this is adding much pressure on the commodities market, with Oil and the precious metals getting somewhat slaughtered


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

VIX busting upward...I could do with 17/18..I've a 'dead' VIX call block, that I need resurrecting!

16s look difficult though, never mind that little bit extra.

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*I'll post a full metals update on my other page..after the close !