Volatility a touch higher

Whilst the main indexes closed broadly flat, the VIX managed a slightly higher close, +1.2%, to settle @ 13.52. Its going to take a near 20% gain just to get to the first gap level of VIX'16. The upper gap of VIX 18' looks way out of range in the near term.       


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

VIX'weekly

Summary

The hourly and daily charts are pretty clear, the obvious retracement (to the upside) is somewhere in the VIX 16-18 zone. I suppose sp'1440 might equate to VIX 16s, with sp'1425 and VIX 18. I find that latter highly unlikely though, considering the strength being shown on the index weekly/monthly charts.

The weekly chart looks especially bizarre after the opening candle of the year, and after that New Years slam down, it now seems unlikely that we'll see VIX 20s until March/April.

If we see  the low sp'1500s in Feb/early March, that'd surely equate to VIX 12/11..even 10s.

More later..on the indexes.

Closing Brief

The market began the week with a mostly mute Monday, trading 1472/65. The close was a touch weak, but it really was nothing of significance. Bears can only get moderately excited if we trade below last weeks low of 1451..and right now that is probably at least 2-3 days away.

The closing hourly index charts...


Dow

SP

Trans

Summary

Frankly, a dull Monday. Tuesday can only be more dynamic in terms of price action, surely?
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The VIX is so very low, the near term direction, it would seem is upward..probably a brief spike to the low 16s?

A little strength in the $ would really help those on the bearish side seeking a 2-4 day equity retracement.
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The usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - its still minor noise

We've seen yet another small rally from the early 1465 low, but so far..its holding under the 1474 mid-Sept high. Who wants to go long @ 1472/73 ? I didn't think so. Near term best guess remains a retracement under last weeks low of 1451...somewhere around 1445/40.


sp'60min4 - retracements

sp'daily5

Summary

News that DELL might be taken private certainly helps to suck up the tech' sector a little, even the corporate dog that is HPQ is up 5-6%, although I'd most certainly still be seeking the $10 level later this year.

back after the close..on what is a very sleepy Monday.