Volatility levelling out

With the indexes closing lower for the second consecutive day, the VIX was battling to hold minor gains..but still closed moderately lower, -1.2% @ 13.62. However, the daily charts are highly suggestive a VIX floor is being put in.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

The sixth consecutive daily decline for the VIX, but despite the fall, the daily trading range is narrowing, and we're surely getting close to flooring.

A brief spike to at least the low 16s seems very likely, and that might well equate to the sp'1435/25 zone.


The bigger picture...

It would seem after a minor retracement - somewhere between sp'1440/25, the market will continue to rally into February, primary target would be 1510/20. If that is the case, then VIX in the 12s, if not 11/10, seems the likely mid-term outcome.

more later..on the indexes.

Closing Brief

A second consecutive daily decline for the main indexes. The declines were only minor, but they have helped produce a clear rollover on the daily charts. First initial target zone remains 1440/35, although 1425 remain possible, especially if VIX can spike into the low 16s.


Dow'60min

SP'60min

Trans'60min

Summary

The day went broadly as expected, and for the bears, the key issue is that we didn't break the recent high of sp'1467.

What still seems VERY unlikely, is a break <1415, never mind the even more critical 1398 low.
Bears had their chance - with VIX 22/23..and they failed.

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As at 3.30pm, I am short from sp'1457, I'll be content with an initial exit @ 1445/40, whether that's tomorrow or Thursday.

*please be clear, I am still holding to a significant move higher into the sp'1500s in Feb/March.

The usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - awaiting Alcoa

Q4 earnings begin at the close with AA. In particular, future guidance will probably be especially important to the market  The indexes continue to struggle, and currently look set to close lower for a second consecutive day. The VIX appears floored, and near term upside would be 16.


sp'15min

vix'15min

Summary

VIX looks especially floored right now on the smaller 15/60min cycles.

*consumer credit data @ 3pm, its possible we could get a last spike on the upside from that.
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UPDATE 3.15pm..standing for a re-short around 1457/59....

*watching Dent on CNBC...omg, I thought I was the doomster !

UPDATE 3.33pm ..short...from sp'1457.

first target is the low 1440s

I think we just have another baby bear flag, much like yesterday.