Volatility manages to close green

A Fed day is usually a choppy trading day, and today saw earlier index gains fail, with a major swing back to the downside, although the market as such only closed broadly flat. The VIX saw opening gains, then minor declines, but closed moderately higher, +2.4% to settle @ 15.95


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

VIX 20' remains the first key target of a multi-week explosive move, with a rough broader target in the 30s - assuming my index target of the low sp'1200s is viable in early 2013.

In the immediate term, VIX 17.50 - the recent high, is important to exceed, and that will open up 18/19. Whether we can break 20 this side of Christmas, that still appears a tall order though.

It is far more likely after Santa has been and gone.

More later, on the indexes.

Closing Brief

With Bernanke sailing off into the sunset..for Christmas, the market now returns to normal service, on thoughts of the fiscal cliff, and other economic concerns. A number of the indexes have just broken their ascending channels, the first sign of a turn.


Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Trans'60min

Summary

The market rallied moderately on the FOMC announcement, but the gains never looked strong, and once the Bernanke conference began, the weakness started to re-appear.

With the VIX closing higher, and the $ recovering across the afternoon, everything is starting to turn back towards the bears.

Lets be clear, the first target is to break the recent 1398 low, until thats done, the bears can't be confident that this 'stupid wave'2 bounce' is complete.

More later.

3pm update - closing hour slump?

With the last FOMC out of the way, the market is now faced with the issue - just like mid September 'what now?' Once Bernanke fades into the sunset this afternoon, we could see the first wave of weakness in six trading days. Eyes to the VIX, and the dollar.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

We're off the highs,  but..not by much.

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) on the hourly index charts, we're about 1-2 trading hours from going negative cycle. So...there is a significant chance we'll be trading 1% lower by tomorrow morning.
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Bears really need a close <1430, preferably 1425. Even then, I'd frankly not have any confidence in my bigger picture outlook until we take out the recent 1398 low.

Only when we are back under 1400, can the bears start to get confident that this multi-week bounce..is over.

VIX still red... USD.. 79.80, -0.26.  A close in the 80s looks out of range.
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I remain short..and still holding to my original bearish outlook from early October.
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UPDATE 3.15pm.. indexes on the slide..and starting to break the channels..

Dow

One down...sp' to follow

UPDATE 3.30pm... and there goes another index, just about to break the up channel.

Trans'60min

*USD 79.89..and still recovering, with VIX green


back after the close