Volatility still trading within a narrow range

Despite the indexes seeing a sharp intra-day swing, the VIX is still trading within a particularly narrow trading range. The VIX closed lower by 2.6% to settle @ 15.51 It had earlier been up almost 5% in the high 16s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

One notable aspect of the VIX right now is indeed the narrow trading range. Despite the indexes swinging from sp -13pts to close +11pts, the VIX only swung from +5% to -2% - and that's from a very low level in the mid teens. Pretty incredible.

The hourly VIX chart is bullish indexes into tomorrow, and I'd guess we might briefly drop into the VIX 14s tomorrow - not least if SP' can break into the 1420s.

The much awaited 'VIX explosion' looks as distant as ever, but then that's how it should feel, near the top of an index wave'2 bounce.

More later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

A strong closing hour to what was a pretty stark reversal day. With the close and break >sp'1410, this opens the door to my original wave'2 bounce target of sp'1425 - as early as tomorrow.


dow'60min

sp'60min

Trans'60min

Summary

For those who were chasing the opening declines..and who didn't have tight short-stops..today has been a disaster. I can understand it, but in this nasty market..there is no excuse for good stops, not least when any random news headline can cause intra-day swings like we saw today.

I had been seeking a wave'4 - or however you wish to count it, but it seems - not least from the daily chart, we have a clear wave'2, consisting of a standard ABC.

C' wave is surely underway, and I'm guessing it concludes around 1420/25, which is very viable as early as tomorrow.

I remain watching, and ready to re-short.

The usual bits and pieces across the evening....
  
 your invoice is in the mail.

3pm update - Mr Market and Moon Madness

Mr Market has certainly put in a strong reversal today, and we're now seeing yet another up cycle play out. A close >1409 would be very bullish for tomorrow, and bring within immediate reach, my sp1425 target.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The hourly cycle is not even positive cycle yet on the MACD (blue bar histogram), there is plenty of upside in this wave, a good 4-6 hours.

My target of sp'1425 is indeed very possible tomorrow...and so I remain...waiting.

*outside the full moon has risen over the city, and is looking mighty powerful - with Jupiter just to the left. There is a lunar eclipse tonight, but its not available everywhere. Go take a look..to the east, this evening ;)

back after the close.