Volatility closes flat

The VIX opened 4% higher, but those gains sure didn't last long, and by late morning the VIX was again 3% lower in the low 16s. Yet, with the indexes weak in late afternoon, the VIX managed to close flat, and remains @ 16.65


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

The hourly cycle is now fully reset, and is primed for a major leap higher - possibly a large gap higher at the Wednesday open. A 10% move would get the VIX back into the low 18s, although based on recent VIX action, a 10% move is perhaps expecting too much.

Regardless, I'm still looking for VIX 20/21 - at least briefly, before the indexes floor, somewhere around sp'1345.

More later.

Closing Brief

A bit of a messy day, moderate opening declines, a mini-ramp, but the afternoon saw underlying weakness emerge again. Indeed, the rats were bailing in the closing hour, which was very pleasing to see.


Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Trans'60min

Summary

I have attempted to put a count on the transports. It looks pretty good, and if its right, it should mean we are due at least one major wave to the downside. That would certainly offer a good chance of hitting my sp'1345 target either late tomorrow or Thursday.

VIX remains very weak, and even 18 is almost 10% higher, and do reflect on the fact that last Wednesday, with the Dow -300pts, the VIX only managed +8%.
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As ever...the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - closing hour of bailing rats?

Mr Market is struggling, with just one hour left of the trading day. The VIX is still battling to stablise in the mid 16s. A close <1380 would be useful to the bears, as a bearish lead into tomorrow.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, lets see if some of those stinky rats decide to abandon ship, and if we can close the indexes a touch red. A fourth consecutive close under the 200 day MA @ sp'1381 would indeed be...useful.

I remain short, and will hold into tomorrow.

back after the close
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UPDATE 3.15pm I do like this trans hourly chart, with count.. we should in theory snap much lower tomorrow

Rats sure are getting twitchy, with 45mins left. SP'1376 or lower, would be a real bonus after the earlier mini-ramp.