Volatility creeping higher

It was a bit of choppy day for the market, and whilst the indexes still managed a slightly higher close, the VIX managed to hold moderate gains of  4.7 %  @ 18.42


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

Considering the uncertainty of tomorrows election, its not entirely surprising the VIX still managed a higher close, even though the indexes were green.

The daily trend is certainly slightly to the upside, but as has been the case for a few months, until we get a daily - and more importantly, a weekly VIX close >20, any index declines are not to be trusted.

An intra-day VIX break over 20, would probably open up 21/22 at least - on a brief spike.

More later.

Closing Brief

The market manages a moderately higher close, but still considerably lower than the Friday morning peak. Despite the moderate index gains, the VIX held slight gains of 3%.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

The bear flag on the 15min cycle was obviously briefly breached in this closing hour, and doubtless some would have been short-stopped out..yet again.

This market remains stuck back in the war zone from last week of 1420-00.

Weekly/monthly charts across multiple indexes - and commodities, suggest we'll soon be underneath that war-zone.

The usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - still minor chop

Its turned into something of a dull trading day. Early moderate declines, then flat..now fractional gains. The smaller cycles are resetting themselves, not least the 15min, which is now pretty high. The VIX is still holding onto moderate 4-5% gains.


sp'15min

sp'daily5

Summary

The 15min cycle has a clear bear flag, so long as we don't close >1420, bears shouldn't be getting stopped out.

Underlying price pressure should be downward, as seen on the weekly/monthly charts.

A close <1412, would be..useful.

more after the close