Volatility swings higher into the weekend

The opening index gains failed to hold for the fifth time in six days, and we saw the VIX battle higher across the day, closing 5% higher into the mid 17s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

VIX'weekly

Summary

An interesting day, especially when you look at the hourly chart. The opening candle was a classic hollow-red candle - often (but not always) a sign of a reversal in progress.

The reversal did indeed occur, and the VIX closed noticeably higher by the close, and continued to rally in the brief 15mins of AH trading.

The daily cycle is a bit of a mess, bears really need a daily close >20 early next week to have confidence of 'trouble ahead'.

The weekly cycle closed a touch lower on the week, having hit the declining upper bollinger. Again, it will be important to see a weekly VIX close >20. Maybe next Friday ?
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More later, looking at the indexes.

Closing Brief

For the fifth time in six days, the opening gains failed to hold. It would appear the soft resistance zone of sp'1430/25 was indeed important. The VIX confirmed the index declines, closing a little higher (4/5%)


IWM'60min

dow'60min

Sp'60min

Summary

A good way to end a somewhat bizarre 3 day trading week.

The 1411 target was not hit, but that was always unlikely. So, no bearish engulfing candle on the sp'500, although there might be one on a few other indexe (I've not looked yet!)

Have a good weekend

*There is a lot to consider this weekend. I will post the usual 'monthly index cycle' update on Saturday.

3pm update - Permabear seeking 1411

The indexes are showing their weakness again, as backed up by the big weekly and monthly cycle charts. Even AAPL is participating in the decline, now in the low 580s. VIX remains largely unimpressed so far, and won't likely explode until we are sub'1400.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Seeking a close under the Wednesday close of 1412.

If that is the case, it would form a giant bearish engulfing candle, and suggest next Monday opens...'considerably lower'.

Back after the close.