Volatility fractionally lower

Whilst the main indexes closed moderately lower - inspired by the Google price action, the VIX once again failed to hold onto even minor gains of 2%, and closed 0.25% lower to remain in the low 15s.


VIX'60min

VIX' daily

Summary

VIX remains utterly flat. Intra-day action remains mute, and we remain at bizarrely low levels.

A close in the 17s should be the first target for the bears, but right now, even that looks out of range. Even a test of the recent sp'1427 low will probably not be enough to get the VIX back to the 17s.

Until VIX puts in a weekly close >20, all index declines are to be largely dismissed.

More later.

Closing Brief

The day started dull, and looked set to close the same way, except GOOG really spiced things up with its early press release. Main indexes closed moderately lower, lead naturally by the Nasdaq. VIX closed a touch lower.


iwm'60min

sp'60min

trans'60min

Summary

Moderate declines for the Dow/SP', with Nasdaq losing almost 1%. Transports continues to do its own thing, and is close to breaking a few key levels.

Earnings have so far been arguably weaker than the cheer leading bull maniacs were expecting..and these are only Q3 numbers. I'd expect Q4 to come in much..much lower.

Those who were touting a US recession as early as this Spring, are starting to see their predictions pan out.

Yet, for the moment, the market is still holding together..not least as evidenced by the flat VIX in 15s.

back later.

3pm update - critical closing hour

With the lousy GOOG earnings, Mr Market is seeing the 3 day rally come to an end. If the high is in for this cycle, then some very exciting days could be ahead. First critical level is the Monday low of sp'1427.

VIX is slightly higher, but considering GOOG, its still lagging.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Things will indeed get very interesting if we can take out the 1427 low. That seems out of range tomorrow, so I'd really only look for that next week.

As noted a few hours ago, bears should seek a close <1450. That would be a major victory for the bears.

Much more after the close.