Volatility rallies late in the day

Despite the indexes closing broadly higher, and holding those gains into the close, the VIX rallied in the latter part of the day, closing just fractionally lower to close @ 15.22


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

Clearly, the last few months have seen the VIX stuck in the very low teens. There remains a complete lack of fear in the market, and there is no sign of

Until the VIX breaks back over 20 - with a weekly close >20 (as is my third red flag criteria), bears are facing a real problem.

Despite the late day rally, what also remains the case, is that a VIX <20 is not reliable. With the indexes closing as they did, the continuing minor VIX movement is nothing less than static.

More later

Closing Brief

The market closed higher for a second day, and the close was a pretty strong one. The sp' closed 1% higher @ 1454. This is a mere 1.5% away from breaking the QE spike highs.


IWM'60min

sp'60min

Summary

So, a major victory for the bulls. The close is even more decisive when seen on the daily cycle.

Next target for the bulls is an obvious 1475, a new index high from the 2009 lows, and that would open up an attempt on the big 1500 level.

*VIX closed flat, but the indexes sure did not show any real weakness today.

More later

12pm update - on the way up

Market is comfortably holding onto those opening gains, and is even picking up a few more points as we approach lunch time. VIX is lower by over 4%. Today is clearly day'2 of this new up cycle, the issue is naturally, how many days to go?


sp'60min

sp'daily5

VIX'60min

Summary

Its getting pretty conclusive, we're well into the 1450s, and now a mere 1.5% from the recent QE spike highs.

As we move into opex, it now looks like the bears have entirely lost all downside momentum. Last week was important, with the break of the June rising support trend, but it all seems for nothing.

It will be interesting to see if the bulls can keep this new round of madness going into next week..and beyond. Right now, that appears disturbingly likely.

back at 3pm