Volatility down again

With the SP' breaking above the important trend line of 1455, the VIX slipped lower by over 5% to close in the 14s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

So, another failed move for the bears. With the sp' close in the low 1460s, we're barely 1% from the QE spike high from 3 weeks ago. New index highs now seem likely within days, if not tomorrow.

If Mr Market likes the jobs data, then a challenge of 1474 is viable tomorrow, and then the big 1500 next week.

In terms of VIX, we could be looking at 11, even single digits. This all assumes no 'upset', and it has to be said..it is after all...October.

More later

Closing Brief

Another day in market land where the bulls took control, held on tight, and again laughed into the faces of those few still resolutely holding short. New index highs are seemingly now very likely across the next few days.


IWM'60min

SP'60min

Trans

Summary

A pretty clear victory for the bulls, the only issue is that the Rus'2000 is lagging behind. The transports of course remains in a world of its own, trading almost back at the equivalent of the June sp'1266 low.

For those holding short into Friday, they had better hope the jobs data comes in much lower than expected, otherwise we'll very likely test the QE3 spike high of sp'1474.

More later

2pm update - bulls holding onto their gains

The bulls are doing well, and we're comfortably still above the breakout zone of 1450/55. With the VIX a little lower, and the clown networks touting 'Factory orders are fine' - when they were -5%, the mainstream delusion is back in force.

Everything is going to be just fine, right? Hell, if Romney wins, we're all be billionnaires next year, even the permabears, yes?


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The daily chart is very clear, its a breakout from the bullish pennant (pink).

I suppose the doomers could count this as still a bear flag - which it is, but considering the trend - we're now day'6 UP, it's looking bad for anyone still on the short side.

New index highs are viable tomorrow, if Mr Market decides that 50-125k job gains a month counts as 'economic growth/recovery'.

back after the close....probably.