Volatility a touch lower

The VIX actually had a pretty flat day, which was surprising considering the moves/direction of the main indexes today.

Arguably, the most bearish chart of the week, the VIX weekly cycle, where we have a confirmed close outside of a giant wedge. Immediate upside target is 21, sometime next week.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

VIX'weekly

Summary

Considering the indexes were dow +120pts earlier today, the VIX held together pretty well, Also, the fact that the uncertainly inherent about Jackson Hole is also out of the way, the VIX did hold up well indeed!

The hourly and daily cycles show a nice near term up trend that is still broadly continuing.

However, most important of all, the weekly cycle did get the confirmation I was seeking last weekend. We have another tick higher on the MACD cycle, and we are set to go positive cycle at the Tuesday open.

The weekly VIX cycle is warning of index declines next week. Sp'1385/80 looks very viable next Tue/Wednesday.

More later

Closing Brief

I think today was a bit of a rough day for most traders, and for many, August as a whole was a difficult month - even for those on the bullish side.

The closing hourly index charts...


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

So, August trading comes to an end. September is going to be a lot more active...I hope.

The hourly index cycles are a real mess after today's chop, but at least, Jackson hole is out of the way. We're done with that nonsense for another year.

Next up...the monthly jobs data next Friday - although there are various EU meetings early next week, that might take more centre stage.

I remain seeking at least a hit of 1385/80 early next week.

Have a good weekend!

*More later this evening, with bits and pieces across the 3 day weekend.

3pm update - closing hour weakness?

The big closing hour, of Jackson Hole day. The last trading day of August, and hopefully, the end to the summer doldrums.


sp'5min

Summary

Well, lets see how we close into the 3 day weekend

*I've added to existing index shorts, from the sp'1408 level.  Certainly not the top of the day, but, its barely 1% from the recent 1426 cycle peak.