Volatility approaching important levels

With the market actually showing a little weakness today, the VIX closed higher, but only by 4.5% to the 17.8 level.


VIX'60min

VIX' daily

VIX'weekly

Summary

So, after two trading weeks, the VIX is up from the low 13s to the high 17s. It is still a very low VIX level though, but the trend is certainly up.

Bears should seek a VIX weekly close >18 tomorrow. Anything in the 19s would be a real bonus.

The 'doomer bears', will certainly be seeking a VIX of 35/45 this Autumn at some point. The weekly VIX cycle is due to go positive MACD cycle next week! An 'explosive' move is....soon viable.

More later

Closing Brief

Finally, a little bit of price action! Market weak into the close, and close to breaking the baby bear flag. A good close for the bears.

However ,the VIX still shows little conviction of serious upside, only climbing 3% to the mid 17s


IWM'60min

Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Summary

Bears should be content with today, especially the closing minutes. First downside target remains a very obvious '1380.

A lot will indeed depend on the Bernanke tomorrow, yet as ever, how the market interprets the words..even more important than the words themselves.

More later in the evening

3pm update - baby bear flag?

Declines continue to largely hold, a baby bear flag is currently apparent on the hourly cycle

sp'60min

Summary

Its not bad little flag, so long as we don't climb back about the hourly 10MA of 1404/05, it can be said to be a bearish formation for the closing hour and into early tomorrow.

1380 sure looks 'best case' tomorrow, I just can't see anything below that in the near term.

The transports might get a very important weekly, and monthly close <5000 tomorrow.

More after the close