Another week over, moderate index gains

With no sell side volume, the algo-bots are in control of this market. The meltup...continues.

To close today, lets take a brief look at the sp'500 weekly index chart.


sp, weekly, 2yr

Summary

We're now just 4pts shy of the April peak of Sp'1422. It is a pretty astounding sight.

Double top? That is indeed something that many are now considering, although I think its a low probability outcome, especially when you consider that we still have both the infamous Bernanke @ Jackson Hole, and also the FOMC of Sept'13th.

It'd seem we'll test/break 1422 next week, and probably crawl higher to around 1450/75, no later than the end of September.

There remain so very many ticking economic time bombs out there, but for now..they all seem to have plenty of time left on the detonator clock.

Clearly, it was a difficult week for the bears. We all have a lot to consider across this weekend. Have a good weekend.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

A very quiet day, especially considering it was opex. Lets take a quick look at how the big sp'500 index closed the week.


sp'daily5

Summary

The daily chart is showing an accelerating trend, within what is a clear wedge on the hourly charts, and when you consider the hourly cycle, it'd seem there is a pretty high likelihood of a retracement starting sometime next week..

Yet, a retracement will probably be no lower than 1380.

So long as we don't break below the recent cycle low of sp'1354, the bulls are now firmly in control. Even though buying volume is weak, with no sellside volume at all, the algo-bots are getting an easy opportunity to melt the indexes upward.

There does seem a growing consensus for the sp'500 to max out somewhere around 1455/75 by mid/late September.

A little more later.

Volatility falling to twilight zone levels

The VIX closed in the mid 13s, this is truly freaky to behold, and there is absolutely no sign of fear in this market for at least the near term. In fact, its almost like we're back to the 2006 property bubble mood again.


VIX'60min

VIX,daily

VIX, weekly

Summary

The big VIX weekly cycle shows no sign of a turn higher. We've seen an eleven week decline, and todays close doesn't bode well for next week either.

Again the question has to be asked, where will the VIX floor? 12s seem imminent next Monday - with the Sp' testing 1422.

The once unthinkable VIX falling below <10, thats really not too far away now. Maybe a few bullish comments by the Bernanke at Jackson hole can achieve such a bullish feat?

But thats fine though, the economy is all fixed, right?

*It is notable that VIX futures for early 2013 are in the mid 20s, although that is not exactly too unusual.
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