Volatility falls even lower

With the indexes remaining in a very tight range, the VIX continues to weaken. With a quiet weekend ahead, the VIX suffered most of its 3.5% declines in the closing hour.

Mr Market has no fear of possible 'events' over the weekend anymore.


VIX'60min

VIX, daily

VIX, weekly

Summary

The close of 14.74 is truly remarkable. Even a multi-day jump of 35% would barely get the VIX back to the 20 level.

The VIX weekly chart is offering a very nice descending wedge, which would normally be expected to break to the upside. Yet, how high will the next up cycle go? A mere 20..or 25?

Those who are still super bearish on a multi-month basis, looking for Sp' in the low 1200s by late Autumn are getting a great opportunity to load up on VIX option calls. Although, since it seems likely we won't start seeing any major declines until September, its arguably better to wait a further 2 or 3 weeks - due to the inherent decay in such time ticking derivatives.

More across the evening

Closing Brief

A very narrow trading range today, and across the week. A week to be forgotten.

The closing hourly index charts...


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

Very choppy day, with near zero volume.

You can see the underlying MACD cycle is crawling back up, and is set to go positive cycle on Monday.

*I'll probably post a few different things across the weekend. Clearly, it looks like no major downside action until September now..and there is still the issue of when the Bernanke will appear.

2pm update - still..dull

Still near zero-volume churn. They should probably close now, so everyone can focus more fully on the Olympic relay finals.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So quiet, doubtless another very low volume day. Can you say 'bearish for Brokers' ?

More 'nothing' expected across the remaining two hours, a minor update after the close.