Volatility turning higher

Whilst the indexes closed largely flat, the VIX actually closed up a moderate amount. Sure, the VIX remains at a very low level, but bigger weekly cycle is starting to tick higher again.

Whether bullish or bearish, traders should be mindful of the weekly VIX cycle, which is again starting to turn upward on the MACD cycle.


VIX'60min

VIX, daily, rainbow

Somewhat surprisingly, we did actually get a green candle to close the day on the rainbow chart.


VIX, weekly

Summary

Almost a 8% close higher for the VIX, yet we're still only around 18. Even a further 10% jump will barely get us to 20, and that is barely borderline 'interesting' for the bears.

As noted many times before, look to the VIX weekly as one of the prime early warnings for any major down cycle. For anyone who believes 'big doom down wave' coming soon, now would doubtless be the time to start going long volatility.

A little more later.

Closing Brief

Mr Market had a somewhat flat and dull Monday, largely as expected.

The hourly closing index cycles...


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

As expected essentially a flat close. Tuesday will be much more dynamic. A move as deep as the low 1360s is viable

Notable move of the day, VIX +7%. I suppose that is something for the bears, and might be the very early beginning of a major VIX leap over the recent high of 21
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On what is a sleepy Monday..here is something to close the trading day... (a little..fun from RT TV)

1pm update - afternoon slumber

Market back to churning sideways again. The algo-bots might easily wish a close just a over 1380.


sp'60min

VIX,60min

Even 18.50 looks out of range right now for todays close


Summary

I'm still not expecting anything, a flat close would make for a perfect doji candle..and sets up tomorrow for the first opportunity to see something significant. As noted earlier though, even sp'1360 would be a normal retracement in what is currently a strong up trend.