Monthly Index Cycles - flipping bullish

Once again, we have a very sick and twisted market, from the Monday opening morning decline of dow -239...to the Friday close of dow +187, which is a huge 550pt swing.

On any basis, a dire end to the week for the bears..and the bulls can now start to dream of sp'1500/1600 by the year end - if they get a big enough QE3 fix within the next 7 weeks.


sp, monthly, rainbow (Elder impulse)

*ignore the projection on the chart. Right now..the trend is back to UP.
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Summary

The monthly cycle...is now outright bullish. The July trading month still has two days left, but baring a significant turn around (with declines) by the Tuesday close, we will close July..bullish.

Yes, not all the indexes are as bullish as this. The Rus'2000, Transports, NYSE Composite, and the Nasdaq Composite are now back to neutral. Yet, the bullish SP'500 and Dow'30 are hugely important, and they are currently warning of a major trend change to the upside.

Right now..that's all that needs to be said.

Goodnight from London

Closing Brief

For bears..a truly dire end to the week, and an outright horrific letdown after what was a superb opening Monday morning. For the bulls, they can revel in the fact that the central bankers can happy-talk the market to new index highs.

*the monthly cycles have now flipped to outright bullish for the SP'500 and Dow'30. There are still two trading days left of the month, but..its looking like we'll close outright bullish.

Only the Rus'2000 small cap and the Transports are still suggestive of mid-term weakness.

As things are, the entire bearish outlook will need to be thrown out next Tuesday.
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The closing hourly index charts...


IWM

Dow

SP

Summary

Very little needs to be added. We all know how sick and stupid this is..yet we ARE closing with the weekly cycles at what are now borderline outright bullish.

If we're still at these levels by the Tuesday close..then its all over for the bears, and all those touting sp'1500/1600 by year end..can start to smile.

3pm update - a lousy end to the week

Whilst the sporting (and financial re-hypothecated) capital of the world is preparing to begin the opening ceremony - for which it can't actually afford without more deficit spending, we still have one more hour left of this trading week.

We will doubtless close at a level which is borderline breaking the weekly cycles - since the April rollover.

*As we've seen in the past hour..a lot of big money bear short-stops have already bailed out.


sp'60min

sp'weekly

Summary

Monday morning...seems like so very long ago.
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A little more after the close.