VIX'60min
VIX, daily
VIX, weekly
Summary
A weak close on the daily chart. The bigger weekly cycle outlook is still fine, and I'm looking for mid 30s within 3 weeks.
More later....
Thursday, 12 July 2012
Volatility still weak
With the sp @1325 this morning, the VIX was +9%, and showing a breakout on the daily charts, yet the close was weak, very weak. The VIX remains very low, and as noted many times, until we see VIX 20+, the bears can not get excited about more 'interesting' index moves lower.
VIX'60min
VIX, daily
VIX, weekly
Summary
A weak close on the daily chart. The bigger weekly cycle outlook is still fine, and I'm looking for mid 30s within 3 weeks.
More later....
VIX'60min
VIX, daily
VIX, weekly
Summary
A weak close on the daily chart. The bigger weekly cycle outlook is still fine, and I'm looking for mid 30s within 3 weeks.
More later....
Closing Brief - bulls battle back
The bears managed to quickly drop the market to sp'1325 - with the VIX +9%, but we certainly saw a very reasonable recovery by the bulls.
Despite the recovery, the broad up channel that has endured since the early June low of sp'1266..is over. It is a moderately uncertain guess, but I think the wave'2 top was indeed 1374, and we've just seen micro-wave'1 complete - that forms part of the big wave3 that many of the doomsters out there are looking for.
By definition, if that is correct, we're now due a micro-wave'2 higher, that could easily take us back to around 1350/60 by the middle of next week. If we then see a rollover, it will be putting in a critical lower high...and then some real entertainment can begin.
The closing hourly charts...
IWM
Dow
SP
Summary
The closing 20minutes or so was a little weak, but still, we're closing 10pts higher on the SP' from the morning low.
--
Baring some 'news' tomorrow, I'm not expecting much, other than low volume algo-churn, probably to the moderate upside.
Regardless, my target is now a re-short next Tuesday - ahead of the Bernanke who speaks next Wednesday.
more later...
Despite the recovery, the broad up channel that has endured since the early June low of sp'1266..is over. It is a moderately uncertain guess, but I think the wave'2 top was indeed 1374, and we've just seen micro-wave'1 complete - that forms part of the big wave3 that many of the doomsters out there are looking for.
By definition, if that is correct, we're now due a micro-wave'2 higher, that could easily take us back to around 1350/60 by the middle of next week. If we then see a rollover, it will be putting in a critical lower high...and then some real entertainment can begin.
The closing hourly charts...
IWM
Dow
SP
Summary
The closing 20minutes or so was a little weak, but still, we're closing 10pts higher on the SP' from the morning low.
--
Baring some 'news' tomorrow, I'm not expecting much, other than low volume algo-churn, probably to the moderate upside.
Regardless, my target is now a re-short next Tuesday - ahead of the Bernanke who speaks next Wednesday.
more later...
3pm update - closing hour gains?
The bulls have already achieved a sizeable recovery, and if we start to slip back to the low 1330s, they still can't complain. With the VIX set to go red by the close...this is very likely a turn day.
Hard to guess if we close marginally green on some indexes - the 15min cycle is pretty high, so it would be kinda easy is we slip lower. Regardless, we are a long way up from the 1325 this morning!
sp'60min
vix'daily
Looks like a failed breakout, the black candle is a clear warning of VIX downside Friday. The black 'doom' candles don't always work out, but more often that not.
sp'daily5
Summary
I remain on the sidelines. I sure ain't hitting buttons to go long, and with the hourly MACD cycle suggestive of going +cycle this closing hour....I can't be short either.
Actually, today is arguably a victory for both sides. Bulls saw a sizeable bounce - with the hope of a multi-day rally back to the 1350/60s...and bears saw the primary up trend/channel of wave'2 broken.
As it is, I don't expect to re-short now until next Mon/Tuesday. The one upside of not trading...the guarantee that I'm not going to lose money!
More after the close
Hard to guess if we close marginally green on some indexes - the 15min cycle is pretty high, so it would be kinda easy is we slip lower. Regardless, we are a long way up from the 1325 this morning!
sp'60min
vix'daily
Looks like a failed breakout, the black candle is a clear warning of VIX downside Friday. The black 'doom' candles don't always work out, but more often that not.
sp'daily5
Summary
I remain on the sidelines. I sure ain't hitting buttons to go long, and with the hourly MACD cycle suggestive of going +cycle this closing hour....I can't be short either.
Actually, today is arguably a victory for both sides. Bulls saw a sizeable bounce - with the hope of a multi-day rally back to the 1350/60s...and bears saw the primary up trend/channel of wave'2 broken.
As it is, I don't expect to re-short now until next Mon/Tuesday. The one upside of not trading...the guarantee that I'm not going to lose money!
More after the close
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