Which part of this don't you understand?

I've posted hundreds of charts over the last few months, detailing the initial signs of an apparent  'global problem'. We've seen the world indexes start to rollover as early as January. We've seen the metals - along with their associated miners, continue to fall. Today Oil broke $80, another key marker. The econ-data (especially PMI) has been lousy for months now. There is nothing good lately, is there?

As I've asked a few times recently....which part of the following don't you understand?


VEU, weekly, 4yr

Its pretty clear. Along with dozens of supporting charts, whether stocks, sector etfs, commodities, indexes (US, or other countries)...they all are warning of the same thing.

A secondary deflationary collapse wave, in the style of 2008. Now, the Bernanke might - and probably will try to stall this collapse, via a huge QE3 of 1 trillion, but I think he is soon going to realise, he is already to late to stop it anyway.


First stop...sp'1150/00.

What happens there will clarify the rest of the year. If we can hold over 1100, then the market will again rally - not least, if some new QE after August. Yet,,,if we do break the 2011 low of sp'1070s, and if VIX can break 50..then the VEU chart listed above will indeed have summarised everything perfectly.
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Today I managed to annoy myself with a mere 'small profit'. I suppose it could be worse. I could be one of those cheer leading maniacs who will be buying all the way down to hell.

That's all for today.

Goodnight


 

Closing Brief - Game Over Bulls

Those opening dow gains seem a fleeting hazy dream for the bulls. A rough day...a lousy close. Nothing good ahead for this market in the weeks and summer ahead.

The closing hourly index cycles...


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

A pretty brutal day of consistent declines, even the closing hour failed to provide what would often be a moderate bounce.

I will probably state it hundreds of times in the coming few months..but this market is now in real trouble. There will be bounces along the way, but I sure won't be going long ANY of them.
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Maybe more later, but after what was a failed trading day, I'm probably even more displeased than most of the bulls.

3pm update - closing hour ramp?

A dow -200pt day, its certainly given the bull maniacs a good scare. However, we're still likely to get some sort of bounce..more likely than not.






sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Lets get one thing clear...I am not going long ANY bounce. So, even though I might believe a bounce is coming, I am NOT going to trade long....period.

I will side step this market every time I get the sense one of those stupid bounces is due. I've seen..and experienced too many hyper-ramps to risk being part of that.
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My simple rule remains: short...EVERY bounce until sp'1150/00.

The game I am trying to play is to jump out as close to each low...wait for each stupid bounce..and then merely re-short at higher levels than my exit. Clearly, sometimes, the market will just keep falling - as it has done today. Besides, I never held to my original target today anyway, which was a stupid decision.
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More after the close...but I am somewhat tired, and remain highly annoyed with myself. Urghhhhhhh