VIX - still trending lower

VIX closed broadly flat today, but the underlying near term trend is still lower. Today may have seen the floor though in the mid 17s. The next move in the VIX will indeed be highly dependent upon the FOMC tomorrow.

Bears should look for a blue/green candle on the VIX daily 'rainbow' chart tomorrow at the close.


VIX, daily, rainbow (elder impulse)

VIX'60min

VIX, weekly

Summary

We've seen a VERY significant pull back in the VIX from the 27s to the 17s. That certainly merits a very good wave'2 retracement.

Wave'3 should take VIX into the upper 30s...or 40s. The ultimate question remains whether VIX can break the 2010/11 spike highs of 49.

If we see VIX 50 at ANY point this summer, then the secondary doomster outlooks come into play.

More later..looking at the index daily cycles.

Closing Brief

Market closed with very reasonable gains, on what is day'12 of this up cycle. We have closed comfortably in my original target zone of sp'1350/60. The secondary zone is 1380/90. That remains possible if the FOMC at least temporarily please the market tomorrow.

I think its very possible we've now put in the high of wave'2, now its just a matter of waiting for the FOMC tomorrow lunchtime (12.30pm, with Bernanke press conf at 2.15pm).

Lets look at those closing hourly index cycles


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

We've seen enough of an up trend in both price and time for this wave'2. Twelve trading days is long enough....tomorrow will be unlucky 13..for those bull maniacs..perhaps.

As ever..so much depends on the actions (or inaction) of those printing maniacs at the Fed.
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More across the evening...I've a battle plan for tomorrow to note down!

3pm update - looking forward to Fed day

The 15 and 60min cycles are over-stretched on any basis. A little weakness in the closing hour is understandable, yet a close anywhere in the 1350s would still make for another victory for the bulls.


sp'60min

*initial support at the hourly 10MA of sp'1353.


Summary

Bulls should be content about today, they have a falling dollar/rising Euro, reasonable gains across all sectors/indexes. Even the VIX is largely flat, despite the uncertainty of the FOMC decision tomorrow.

Trading will be VERY much simpler in less than 24 hours.

...time for England vs Ukraine !


More after the close...