Tuesday, 8 May 2012

Volatility update

VIX came real close to breaking the key 21 level today, as is often the case..it failed. The close was weak, and for a few seconds in after hours trading (VIX updates for 20 minutes post close), the algo-bots kicked the VIX much lower - and it hit precisely on my lower channel line. Interesting!


VIX, 60min



VIX, daily



VIX, weekly


Summary

In the short term, VIX looks to break lower again, first target would be 18.25, then 16.75. The weekly cycle remains very bullish though, and I believe VIX will likely explode into the 30s..if not much higher no later than mid June.

Closing Brief

A good day. A really good day. The target zone of 1340/50 was met, and was a great place to exit short positions. A few hours of chop, the floor was formed, and it was a good time and price to go long. The H/S formation that I believe I have identified - if it occurs, will be extremely useful in the days ahead.

From a cycle perspective, it appears we have a clear minor fifth wave lower which concluded today, and the first main wave up (a) has very quickly developed. 

If the Pink count is correct, then sometime next week we will level out, a little chop..and then snap lower...on a journey via the elevator to hell.


SP' H/S formation - NEW chart



SP'60min - standard chart



IWM'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

The bulls have a close better than any could have hoped for. A close above the important 10MA of 1360   With the VIX closing almost flat, bulls have what is a pretty secure floor of sp'1347. Upside target tomorrow will be around 1375/80.

I would expect some swings between 1355/80 for a few days, before making a final peak in the RS early next week. Such swings will likely confuse those not aware of..what might be the RS of a H/S that is the last stage before the monster wave to 1270...or lower.

More later, focusing on those daily cycles

3pm update - something new to share

I think some of you might like this! I was just browsing the hourly cycles...and oh yes...what do I see...I see a new H/S formation setting up! I was so pleased to spot the mini H/S last week, maybe I've just found another one.

If I'm right, it'll make for a good exit for those longs (myself included)..and it'll clarify the broad levels for those looking to re-short.


SP'60min - NEW H/S formation chart




This looks pretty good I think. The top of the RS, would indeed be suggestive of a re-short level in the 1380/90 zone.
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SP'60min - standard chart



I do think there is a fair chance I'm right, and if so...the next few weeks are going to be real good.

More after the close.