VIX - both sides of the story

The decline in the VIX is kinda ironic considering that the market is seemingly becoming more volatile in its daily percentage moves in the past few days.

Lets look at two of the broad near term alternatives, as well as the important weekly..and a standard rainbow chart too.


VIX, daily, Bullish market

VIX, daily, Bearish market

VIX, daily, rainbow

VIX, weekly

Summary

VIX looks set to hit 24 within the next week, before some kind of pullback. Whether that pull back is just a little..or last some weeks - even a few months (during the facebook IPO?)..we'll just have to see.

What matters I believe is that for the moment, the weekly VIX cycle remains Bullish, the upper bol' easily allows 24..which considering we're currently in the 18s would make for quite a nice move.

Closing Brief

Today was very interesting to watch and be part of. The movement in AAPL alone was enough to merit keeping an eye on things. So far at least, the big bear flag on the Sp' hourly is intact, and if this is a wave'2 up, then we have a really good wave'3 down to come starting within the next few days.

The first 5 waves down took 5 full trading days to complete, so..maybe sp'1340 by the end of next week?


SP'60min

IWM'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Holding to original targets/outlook, looking to short tomorrow, early part of Wednesday - at the next peak of the 15 min cycle.

*However, if somehow we magically break above 1407/10..I might hold off, and reassess.

More later...dealing with the VIX, and the Index daily cycles

2pm Update - in the zone

The bear flag is still intact..only a move over 1410/15 in the days ahead will violate the initial wave'1 lower theory - if that's what it was.

Sp'60min

Everything is on track, we're now in the target zone. Since I was looking for a 2 day C'wave, - and this is only day'1...I will most certainly wait until tomorrow.

I will look to wait until Wednesday morning - at the earliest, to initiate short positions.

More after the close!