Weekly Charts - mixed clues

A brief look at two of the main weekly charts I closely follow....

IWM weekly - near the edge

IWM's bull flag/pennant is in real danger. A weekly close under 80 would arguably cancel out the flag, and suggest a mid-term top is in. So, the doomer bears need to look for 79s..or lower this Friday/early next week.

Again, its interesting to note that the Rus'2000 small cap never did break the May 2011 high, and thus the 'October-March wave was a 2' theory is still intact for this index...just. Although I'd argue the fact that the nasdaq, dow, and SP' - (all posting new highs) over-ride this lagging R2K index.


VIX weekly, momentum still crawling back up

Last weeks fall which broke a 6 week flooring pattern is still causing a problem for the VIX. However, the underlying momentum is still recovering, and is set to go positive cycle in about 3-5 weeks - which will be near the end of April. Another case of 'sell in May. and go away'?


Mid-term 3-6 month outlook

We're at an important time. The ramp since the October low - in both US and world indexes, has been pretty extreme. We've seen the vix decline from 49 to briefly hit 13s. Of course the VIX can remain floored and trundle around in a narrow 3-5pt range for many months - as previous cycles often display.

For the moment at least, we have no real sell signals in the indexes, but we sure aren't looking as secure as we were just a few days ago. I'm still guessing (and trading it that way) we make a further move up into next week, and early April, with targets of IWM 86/87 and SP'1440.

Goodnight

Near term indexes - another Bear Flag

Hmm, not a good end to the day for the bulls. However, selling vol' was arguably light, and overall there was no real drama today. The main delusion that 'everything is gonna be okay' seems still intact.


IWM 60min cycle

We have a clear secondary bear flag on IWM and across most of the other indexes. A further move lower early Friday seems highly likely. That might make for a very clean 5 micro-waves lower, and then maybe that's that, before the next major wave high to sp'1440.


SP Daily

Sp' remains still very strong overall from a daily perspective. However, it is due to go negative cycle (see MACD) Friday. Overall, the daily is pretty bearish.
*I've left an old count on that chart, right now, no idea what to think. Did we really put in a top at the 1414 level?


VIX Daily

VIX is set to go positive cycle Friday, the first major line will be upper bol' of 20.


In Closing

Short term cycles are bearish across the board. It would seem we make another new short term low this Friday, and then maybe we truly start to complete a floor.

The notion we open up 0.75% or more Friday, and keep going up is viable, but..considering the daily cycles, the odds are highly against it. If the market really wants to wreck the bears weekend, it will gap this market back over the 10 MA on the 60min cycle tomorrow, and trend upward...ALL day.

more later....

Thursday Trouble, Buy the Dip?

So, the market is a little lower, and now the 60min cycle is looking like its flooring for a few hours at least. VIX  had a 10% jump, but thats tailing off right now a bit.


SP' 60min cycle

It is now paramount that the bulls get this market back over 1400 quickly. A close of 1395 or lower, and there could be further problems tomorrow.

The 60min cycle does offer the opportunity now for a bounce, so lets see what the algo-bots decide. Will they be happy to buy above 1400, or keep selling into each of the micro-rallies?

yours...
  not yet on suicide watch.