VIX - Reversal Candle Confirmed

The action in the VIX today did at least confirm yesterdays reversal candle.

VIX - bearish scenario

Even the bearish scenario would still call for a move to 24/26 within the near term. Clearly, bears want to see VIX claw back to around 17.50/18 by the Friday close. That would offer some hope for next week.


VIX rainbow chart - no buy signal yet

Certainly there is no proper buy signal yet. Even if the VIX does claw above 18', it will probably take at least 4 days until we see a confirmed green candle.


VIX weekly - still looks ugly, bears need to see 18 again

Very disappointing action so far this week. Somewhat depressing is the realisation that even a Friday close of 18 would still offer nothing in the scheme of things. However, at least 18 would help to keep dragging the underlying momentum back towards going positive cycle in about 2-4 weeks.

All charts keep noting the 24/26 level as very key, whether one takes an overall bullish or bearish outlook.

Commodities - on the edge of snapping lower

Interestingly, despite the recent major market ramp to new highs, commodities - and their related stocks are still not participating.

 CRB - weekly, 5 year overview

CRB could be putting in a bear flag. The MACD cycle is certainly suggesting a rollover, with a target 'snap'  within about 2-4 weeks.


CRX - Commodity related stocks

The CRX remains arguably the last real super bearsh chart out there right now.  Just like the CRB itself, its around 2-4 weeks from a possible major snap lower.


Oil - main trend higher, but weakening momentum

Oil looks like viable for a pull back from current $105 to $94, most bearish target would be the VERY key channel support of $83/85.
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*I will post an update on the metals later, GDX (miners ETF) deserves a good mention too!

AAPL - where will it end?

AAPL - daily, near term

The infamous AAPL had another super Tuesday.  See the blue histogram MACD cycle, which is again turning positive cycle. It could easily crawl up for another 3-5 trading days.

Bullish target: 575/585.  Obviously, the next big level - $600 is well within range to be hit at any time

Bearish target: the 10 day MA, currently 543 - but rapidly rising. So right now, even a $25 dip would not negate the current relentless uptrend. Arguably, only if AAPL can see 2-3 days of consecutive closes below the 20MA (presently $528), can the short term trend said to be broken.


April earnings season - probably bullish

Assuming the main indexes can comfortably crawl into the SP'1400s, and that no 'events' occur in March, it'd seem that AAPL in the mid 600s is very reasonable to expect by late April. Who would dare short this monster of a stock? Anyone bearish on AAPL should dwell on the fact that the Forward PE ratio for AAPL is a mere 12. That is barely half of the average. Considering the legion of consumers that will buy anything with the Apple logo on it, surely it deserves to be at least part of the 'average' PE group?

Good wishes for Wednesday!