Permabear Doomster

Wednesday, 1 July 2020

The second half

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp +15pts (0.5%) at 3115. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -0.2%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the second half of the year on a positive note, but soon entered micro chop mode, which continued into the late afternoon. The closing hour printed sp'3128, and settling moderately higher at 3115.

Volatility melted lower, the VIX settling -5.9% to 28.62. Once Thursday's econ-data is out of the way, the market will be inclined for minor chop into the long weekend.
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It was just another day... up above.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 30 June 2020

June settles

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +47pts (1.5%) at 3100. Nasdaq comp' +1.9%. Dow +0.8%. The Transports settled +1.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened a little choppy, leaning weak to 3047, but then clawing back upward into early afternoon.

These remain bizarre times, the following two screenies are added, if only for historical posterity...

"No one cared who I was until I put on the mask"

"No one cared until I started buying Newmont $NEM corp' bonds"

The afternoon saw considerable chop, but with the closing hour seeing an upward spike to 3111, and settling at 3100. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.2% to 30.43.

With the SPX settling June above multiple aspects of support, not least the 50dma, psy'3K, the monthly 10MA, and the 200dma, it made for a second consecutive bullish monthly settlement. The market still looks vulnerable to the mid/low 2800s, but I would expect July itself to also settle >3K, not least if stim' bill 4 is passed.
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Moody skies... as June/Q2/H1 settles

Monday, 29 June 2020

Conflict of interest

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +44pts (1.5%) at 3053. Nasdaq comp' +1.2%. Dow +2.3%. The Transports settled +2.8%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, with the SPX quickly reversing to test giant psy'3K. From a print of 2999, the SPX swung upward to 3049, seeing increasing chop, with a cooling wave to 3032, and renewed closing upside to settle at 3053.

Volatility was itself relatively subdued, the VIX settling -8.5% at 31.78.

Conflict of interest

Yours truly has always had issues with mainstream financial TV. The literal 'cheerleaders' - not least the Cramer, Eisen, and Liesman, have always been supporters of the central banks.

The Cramer... now partly funded/supported by the Federal Reserve

The press release from the NY fed has clarified Print Central is now in (financial) bed with some 794 companies.

Full list: see: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility-broad-market-index

Specifically, hit the link for 'June 5, 2020' which was actually posted/released Sunday June 28th.

A few notable mentions...

From hereon, whenever any fed official is interviewed by CNBC (owned by Comcast) or FOX Business (owned by FOX), there is a massive and obvious conflict of interest.

I'm guessing the mainstream cheerleaders on CNBC and FOX business will refrain from ever acknowledging this.

Ohh, and...

... its pretty incredible to see the Fed are now an owner of corp' bonds/debt in tier'1 miner Newmont (NEM). All that is left is for the fed to start buying the equity, and you know dear reader... that is just a matter of time.
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Full moon... July 5th