Saturday, 20 June 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a somewhat mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +3.7% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.9% (SPX), +1.0% (Dow), +0.9% (NYSE comp'), to -0.1% (Trans).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500



Nasdaq comp'



Dow



NYSE comp'



Trans


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Summary

Four US equity indexes settled net higher for the week, with one net lower.

The Nasdaq lead the way higher, with the Transports fractionally lower.

More broadly, whilst the SPX and Nasdaq comp' are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, the Dow, NYSE comp', and the Transports are below.

Ytd performance:


The Nasdaq comp' is net higher for the year by +10.8%. The SPX is -4.1%, and the Dow -9.3%. The NYSE comp' is -13.9%, with the Transports trailing by -16.7%.
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Looking ahead

The schedule is pretty light...

Earnings:

M -
T -
W - WGO, KBH, BB, NG, FUL
T - DRI, RAD, ACN, NKE
F -
-

Econ-data:

M - Existing home sales
T - New home sales, PMI/ISM manu'
W - FHFA HPI, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, Q1 GDP (print'3), Durable goods orders, Fed Bal' sheet
F - Pers' income/outlays,
-


Final note

We're nearly half way through the year. After the Q1/Q2 economic collapse wave, we're in the early phase of an almost equally powerful recovery. Yet... things can't be expected to fully return to what they were.

A significant number will never shop the same... or as much. We have world governments (some knowingly) playing medical theatrics, for all sorts of reasons, not least that of increasing control and monitoring of the unwashed sheep. Naturally, the sheep are content to just play along with whatever they are told is 'in their best interests'.

Despite the ongoing economic recovery, society itself is more stressed and fractured than ever. You only need to spend a few minutes on Twitter to see the increasing divide between the left and right. With an election in November, its only going to worsen.

Ohh, and then there are the little matters of China verses India, North Korea verses the South, Ethiopia verses Egypt, or China against... everyone? Sooner or later... one or more of these geo-political flashpoints will turn hot. War is good for business though, right?

The US equity market has recovered better than any other world market, and that is unquestionably largely due to the Fed. Fund managers and the mainstream cheerleaders owe Powell a great deal indeed.

A June settlement under sp'3K would make things 'interesting' again. Yours truly is more focused on gold, silver, and the related miners, which still appear the most straight forward trade into 2021, and for now... I'll leave it at that.

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Have a good weekend
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Friday, 19 June 2020

Quadruple Witching chop

 US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -17pts (0.6%) at 3097. Nasdaq comp' +0.03%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -1.4%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened significantly higher, largely inspired by Asian and European markets. The Spx leaned weak from an early high of 3155, and spiral in early afternoon on some Corona related headlines to 3083. The late afternoon saw a recovery to 3115, but then swinging to 3097, for what was a rather typical choppy quadruple witching opex.

Volatility was choppy, the VIX settling +6.6% at 35.12.

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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 18 June 2020

Very resilient

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +1.8pts (0.1%) at 3115. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled -0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, but all the bears could muster was 3093, before quickly turning fractionally positive.

The Santelli, with red futures

Thursday's weekly jobs data came in at 1.508M vs 1.566 prior. Sure, its a improvement on last week, but 1.5M is still a horrific number. Yet, the market broadly doesn't care, on the notion the fed will just print however many trillions are necessary to paper over the economic cracks... or rather... giant chasms.

The market saw choppy upside into the afternoon, a little cooling wave, and settling effectively flat.

Volatility saw an early cash market high of 35.04, but settling -1.6% to 32.94. Friday will be quad-opex, and that leans to considerable price chop on significantly higher volume.
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Sunshine after summer storms
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Goodnight from London
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