At this time

US equity indexes mostly closed weak, sp -11pts (0.4%) at 3113. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow -0.6%. The Transports settled -0.2%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but the gains were shaky from the start, with most indexes turning red... if only fractionally.

Meanwhile...

Powell answering to the US House

Most notable today...

"Negative rates are not something we see as appropriate... at least, at this time".

Indeed 'at this time' is rather telling. Having now moved to the corp' bond buying stage, all that is left for Print Central are negative rates and equity purchases. Both seem a given... the only issue is when. Powell's (probable) successor Bullard, will not hesitate to take rates negative, but such a new fed chair isn't due until Feb'2022.

The afternoon saw choppy upside to sp'3141, but then leaning weak into the close.

Volatility was itself very subdued, the VIX settling -0.6% at 33.47. The s/t cyclical setup will favour the bears, not least on a Thursday.

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Remaining unstable

US equity indexes closed on a very positive note, sp +58pts (1.9%) at 3124. Nasdaq comp' +1.7%. Dow +2.0%. The Transports settled +1.1%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With positive equity futures, the US President duly appeared in pre-market...

It is the case that Trump is a 'fair weather' market poster. If the screen is green, we can expect something... but if its red... radio silence.

US equities opened very significantly higher, and built powerful gains to sp'3153. A sporadic 'spooky news' Corona headline saw the market plunge to 3076, but with a secondary wave higher into the afternoon to 3140.

Meanwhile...

Powell spent 2.5hrs with the US Senate. There was the usual fedspeak, with Powell arguing the current balance sheet >$7.169trn is not a threat to stability. 

The afternoon saw increasing chop, with some moderate cooling in the closing hour.

Volatility held up relatively well, the VIX settled -2.1% to 33.67. Today's black equity candle bodes bearish for at least part of Wednesday... much as last Friday's did.
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Summer skies

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The volatility continues

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +25pts (0.8%) at 3066. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +0.9%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened very significantly lower. Indeed, it was a rough open for the mainstream cheerleaders, not least the Cramer...

Eyes Wide Shut

The market saw a powerful upside reversal though, from an early low of sp'2965 to 3079 in the mid afternoon. The late afternoon saw some significant chop, as the volatility that began last Thursday continues.

Meanwhile...

The market was 'inspired' in early afternoon, with news the Fed will start buying individual corp' bonds, rather than just ETFs. All that is left for Print Central... negative rates and buying equities.

Volatility printed an early (cash market) high of 41.53, but settling -4.7% at 34.40. I would merely note this Friday is quad-opex, and the market will be inclined for broad chop.

--
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Goodnight from London
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